On Saturday, all 30 teams in Major League Baseball will be in action throughout the day with nine games in the afternoon and six under the lights. Some of the best home run environments have some of the best home run weather this Saturday, so the stage is set for a power-packed Saturday of hardball action. As we roll into another huge day of baseball, let’s take a look at a few home run props to see if we can catch some dingers this Saturday. Considering the many factors that go into hitting home runs, including matchups, environment and a player’s current form, my top three home run props on the board for Saturday are from Pete Crow-Armstrong, Eugenio Suarez and Nick Kurtz.
Just a quick reminder before we swing for the fences—all home run props are long-shot bets. Since even the very best home run hitters hit home runs in less than half their games, home run props are never “safe” picks—even if every single factor seems to indicate a dinger is coming.
The upside to home run props is that the long odds mean big returns when they hit. They’re always a fun way to flex your knowledge and celebrate when one of your hitters delivers. Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be counted on since they are long shots. You can also combine these home run props with other picks into SGP or parlay plays, and I also like to play them at small money in round robins to boost their upside even higher if multiple picks hit it deep on any given day.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for today.
Best Home Run Player Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Pete Crow-Armstrong to record 1+ home runs (+205)
The wind in the Windy City is expected to create very homer-friendly conditions at Wrigley Field on Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will be in the 90s with high humidity, also helping the ball to carry farther, especially to center field. The weather is even more homer-friendly than yesterday’s when six home runs left the yard.
Crow-Armstrong didn’t get in on the slugfest yesterday, going 0-for-4, but he became the first player to reach 20 homers and 20 stolen bases earlier in the week with a blast on Thursday. PCA has hit five of those long balls in his last 13 games and he has a 50% hard-hit rate and 16.7% barrel rate over that span. He has hit most of his homers on the road, but with more favorable conditions at home now, that split could start to shift as the weather warms up.
PCA gets a favorable matchup on Saturday afternoon against Emerson Hancock, who is 3-2 in his 12 starts for the Mariners with a 4.48 ERA, 4.82 FIP and 10 home runs allowed. Left-handed hitters have crushed seven of those 10 homers, which should set up well for Crow-Armstrong.
All he’ll have to do is hang one up in the wind at Wrigley to get the win in the first of our home run props for this Saturday, and I think he’s a good play at +205 with so many factors in his favor this Saturday.
Eugenio Suarez to record 1+ home runs (+250)
Coors Field should be an ideal home run environment again on Saturday. The weather forecast is for winds blowing out and hot and humid conditions that should set up for another slugfest in Denver. Suarez has more home runs than any other player in the contest and comes in with outstanding form.
Over his last 12 games, Suarez has smashed eight home runs, including two blasts as Coors on Friday. He’s one of my top MLB DFS targets of the night since he’s seeing the ball so well. Over those 12 games, he has a 54.5% hard-hit rate and 12.1% barrel rate. His average exit velocity is over 90 miles per hour over that stretch, and he should continue to smash on Saturday.
He’ll go up against rookie lefty Carson Palmquist, who has given up 24 runs in his 26 2/3 innings in the majors, allowing a 39.1% hard-hit rate and 14.1% barrel rate. Opponents have a .497 wOBA against him in his three starts at Coors, and he has given up three homers in just 8 1/3 innings at home. Both lefties and righties have hit him hard, though, so all the Diamondbacks’ sluggers are good options for home run props.
Since he has the most homers on the team and is in such strong form, I like Suarez at this number on Saturday night. The 33-year-old has hit 22+ homers in five straight seasons and 20+ homers in nine of his last 10. He has a ways to go to get to his personal best of 49 homers, but he is showing no signs of slowing down after getting to home run No. 300 in Friday’s win.
Nick Kurtz to record 1+ home runs (+370)
Kurtz hit another homer on Friday night when he was one of my home run props, and I’m going back to the well on Saturday night in another good matchup at home at Sutter Health Park.
The hulking 22-year-old first baseman has hammered 10 homers on the season, including nine over his last 15 games. In those 15 games, he has a 53.5% hard-hit rate and 20.9% barrel rate. That productive run was side-tracked by a quick stop on the IL for a hip injury, but he has come off the IL with a boom, smashing home runs in three straight and five of his last six.
On Saturday, he’ll take on Luis L. Ortiz of the Guardians, who has a 4.64 ERA on the season and has given up 10 home runs in 72 2/3 innings. Left-handed hitters have eight of those 10 long balls. He gave up 10 runs in 10 2/3 innings in his last two starts.
Kurtz will look to continue Ortiz’s struggles and his own recent power surge. Getting him at +370 is great odds given how locked in he has looked lately and how homer-friendly Sutter Health Park has been this season.
