With just two games on Saturday’s WNBA slate, all eyes turn toward the lone contest in the evening window. The Minnesota Lynx host the Los Angeles Sparks for a battle between Western Conference foes, but will it even be a close affair as Kelsey Plum and Co. challenge Napheesa Collier and an elite contender?
Here’s a Lynx vs. Sparks prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for the 8 p.m. EST outing.
Lynx vs. Sparks preview, prediction
Minnesota Lynx
These Minnesota Lynx are title favorites, plain and simple. The team boasts a WNBA-best 11-1 record on the campaign and remains unbeaten at home with a 6-0 sample at Target Center. They average 85.1 PPG — second-most in the league behind only the New York Liberty — while also dishing out the most assists with 24.1 per outing. They move the ball well and when the offense gets humming, the Lynx are a well-oiled machine which looks near impossible to defend. They score efficiently, too, ranking second in both FG% and 3P% at 46.6% and 37.4%.
Don’t underestimate their defense, though. Minnesota deploys a WNBA-best defense holding opponents to just 74.8 PPG, giving them a net rating of 10.3. They may not rebound the ball at an elite level, but the Lynx still rank seventh of 13 in that category. They also sit second in blocks per game and sixth in steals, so they end opponent possessions and create more of their own at a high rate.
Napheesa Collier looks like an MVP candidate leading the Lynx in points (22.4), rebounds (8.5), and steals (1.8) per game. Three other Minnesota players average double-digit points between Kayla McBride, Courtney Williams, and Alanna Smith. Williams also paces the team with 5.9 assists per night while Smith posts 2.2 blocks per outing.
Los Angeles Sparks
There are far fewer positive points to highlight on the Sparks’ side of things. Los Angeles holds a 4-9 record this year, though they’re feisty on the road at 3-3. They rank fifth in the WNBA with 82.2 PPG on the fourth-best FG% and fifth-best 3P%. However, they’re eighth in both assists and rebounds while committing the fourth-most turnovers per contest. Unlike the Lynx, the Sparks’ defense falls 11th in opponent points per game while allowing 86.9 on average — wins will remain hard to come by if that trend continues.
Offseason acquisition Kelsey Plum does put up high marks with her scoring prowess at 20.9 PPG and a team-best 5.6 assists, but she’s shooting an abysmal 38.4% from the floor. It’s likely she returns from a brief injury absence for this game, so she’ll play a major role in this one. Dearica Hamby’s 16.8 PPG and 7.9 REB are both good for second on the Sparks, and Azura Stevens leads the team with 8.8 boards per game while chipping in 13.5 PPG. The Sparks have another two players averaging double-digit points, but until the defense improves, they’ll keep struggling.
Lynx vs. Sparks pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Lynx as 9.5-point favorites at home in this one with -500 odds to win on the Moneyline. Clearly, they’re very heavy favorites to win this contest against a struggling Sparks team with +380 odds of taking a victory on the road. The game total also sits at 162.5 combined points.
In this Saturday evening special, an unstoppable force meets a very moveable object. The Lynx are a very talented and complete basketball team which excels on both ends of the floor. The same simply cannot be said about the Sparks, who may score plenty of points but roster a handful of traffic cones on the defensive side of the ball.
There’s a reason the Lynx are contenders and the Sparks are not. While I considered taking Los Angeles to cover +9.5, I really don’t feel that great about it despite their raw numbers on offense. I’m rolling with the best team in the WNBA to cover instead, so we’re going Lynx -9.5 at -112 odds.
Top Pick: MIN Lynx -9.5 (-112)
