For most of international football history, North America has had a clear top two — Mexico was the best team on the continent, with the United States second and a huge chasm to anyone else. In recent years, though, Canada has made it a competition; by world rankings, the US and Mexico still lead the continent at 16th and 17th, but Canada is up to a best-ever 30th.
The 2024 Copa America, held in the United States, was meant to be one of several test events intended to prepare the country to host the 2026 World Cup and for the world’s largest economy to prove its footballing merit. But both Mexico and the hosts got grouped, and Canada — despite playing in the same group as World Cup winners Argentina — made it all the way to the semifinals.
Canada has a chance to again prove its continental supremacy in the CONCACAF Gold Cup, held concurrently with the Club World Cup in the United States. It sits atop Group B after a 6-0 thrashing of Honduras and plays Curaçao at 7 p.m. ET. The Dutch constituent country is ranked 90th in the world.
Canada is a -400 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Curaçao at +1300 and a draw at +475.
Canada vs. Curaçao prediction, pick
Honduras had its chances in the teams’ opening match; it managed 46% possession and seven shots, including four on target, but in the end, Canada controlled the game from start to finish and took advantage of its chances. It was an outing to forget for Honduran shot-stopper Edrick Menjívar, who only managed to save 25% of the shots on target he faced, the worst performance of his 15-cap international career. Five different Canadian players — including substitute Promise David, who is of no relation to team captain Jonathan David — found the back of the net, and Tajon Buchanan scored his first international brace.
Curaçao outplayed El Salvador, ranked nine places ahead of it in the FIFA World Rankings, during the opening match, but could only manage a draw thanks to a three-save performance by Mario González. Still, there were plenty of encouraging signs; the youngest player on the roster, Juventus defensive midfielder Livano Comenencia, managed two shots, three tackles, and two interceptions, while Juninho Bacuna had four tackles and Roshon van Ejima had six interceptions. Curaçao will need that level of defensive attention again tonight, as Canada will surely be less sloppy in possession than the Salvadorans were. It’s worth noting that Bacuna is on a yellow card and faces a one-match ban if he picks up another.
Expecting another six-goal win is unrealistic from Canada, but despite the lopsided scoreline, I don’t think Curaçao is that much better than Honduras. Honduras is higher than both El Salvador and Curaçao in the world rankings and also has a higher combined market value. Honduran left-winger Luis Palma had two goals in 266 minutes in the Champions League for Celtic in the 2023-24 season, a much better international pedigree than any player on the Curaçao roster. While Canada started a fairly strong squad, it substituted off Lille star Jonathan David after just 63 minutes and didn’t include Celtic defender Alistair Johnson in the match day squad, even though he’s part of the 26-man roster.
It’s almost a guarantee that Canada will see somewhat of a fall-off from the heights of its second-largest win in a Gold Cup, and the team is currently shrouded in controversy because manager Jesse Marsch earned himself another probe after allegedly directing abusive language towards match officials while serving a two-match ban for getting a red card in the third-place match of the CONCACAF Nations League in March. Still, I expect it to clinch advancement comfortably today and rotate its squad before the final group match against El Salvador.
