Starting at 7:30 p.m. ET as a part of the three-game WNBA slate, the Atlanta Dream will host the Washington Mystics for their third matchup this season.
In the opening game of the season, the Mystics produced a narrow 94-90 victory. The Dream answered with a convincing 89-56 win on Sunday, June 15. Allisha Gray led all scorers with 32 points while no scorer on the Mystics tallied more than 10 points in the loss.
The Atlanta Dream enter tonight as eight-point favorites and -380 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Mystics hold +300 odds of pulling off the upset with the game total set at 157.
Mystics vs. Dream preview
These are the two best rebounding teams in the WNBA, but they have very different outlooks otherwise. Atlanta ranks third in the league in scoring, second in three-point makes, fourth in assists, and turns the ball over at the lowest rate in the league. Defensively, the Dream hold opponents to the third-fewest points per game and allow the fewest points off turnovers.
The Mystics have struggled scoring the ball this season. They rank 11th in scoring, last in three-point makes, 11th in assists, and turn the ball over at the second-highest rate. Washington ranks seventh in opponents’ points allowed, and opponents have shot the second-worst three-point percentage against them.
Gray has been at the epicenter of the Dream’s production. The two-time All-Star is averaging 20.4 points, 5.4 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game. She also leads the team in three-point percentage at 42.3% from the perimeter. Rhyne Howard adds 17.3 points, 5.3 rebounds and 5.1 assists, while Brittney Griner has made an impact on the interior, adding 10.6 points, 5.6 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per contest.
The Mystics are led by Brittney Sykes, who is averaging 20.5 points, 4.5 assists and 4.2 rebounds per game. Kiki Iriafen and Sonia Citron each pitch in 13.3 points per game while Iriafen leads the team in rebounding at 9.0 per game. Jade Melbourne leads the team in three-point production, knocking down 42.4% of her looks this season.
Mystics vs. Dream prediction, pick
The Mystics have mostly been a tough watch this season, but they. have won two of their last three. The outlier in this has been the 89-56 loss to the Dream, which is a bit too hard to overlook.
Washington has struggled to score the ball, with the under cashing in eight of its last 10 games. Atlanta gets the job done on both sides of the ball, ranking in the top three of the league in both points scored and points allowed. The Mystics managed to scrap their way to a victory in the first matchup between these two teams, but shot 50% from the three-point line in that outing and turned the ball over a season-low seven times. That was the only game they have not tallied 10+ turnovers this year. Atlanta also out-rebounded them 37-26 despite the loss.
Expect the previous Dream blowout to be more indicative of the talent gap between these two teams. The under has cashed in seven of the last eight matchups between these two teams, so expect tonight to be a bit of a rock fight. They combined for 145 points in Sunday’s matchup, comfortably below the 157-point game total set for tonight. I am backing the under of 157 and for the Dream to cover the -8 for the second straight matchup. While the Mystics have some defensive concerns, they do rank in the top three in opponents’ field goal percentage and opponents’ three-point percentage. Expect it to be a low-scoring game early on before Atlanta increases its scoring and paves its way to another double-digit victory.
Best Bet: Under 157 and Dream -8
In addition, I am backing Gray to record 26+ combined points, rebounds and assists. You can read my full player prop breakdown for tonight’s WNBA slate here.
It has been a strong start to the season for Allisha Gray. The two-time All-Star is averaging a career-high 20.4 points, 5.4 rebounds and 4.5 assists so far this season. The 30.3 combined average of points, rebounds and assists is a strong baseline here. She has especially stood out when facing the Mystics. Gray dropped 25 points, eight rebounds and seven assists in the first matchup between these two teams. On Sunday, she finished with 32 points, five rebounds and four assists while logging just 29 minutes in the blowout victory.
Expect more of the same tonight and for Gray to play in attack mode against the familiar opponent. The former Rookie of the Year has attempted at least 11 field goals in 11 of the 12 games this year, pulled in four or more rebounds in 11 of the 12 games, and recorded three or more assists in 10 of the 12 games. Gray has tallied 26+ combined points, rebounds and assists in eight of the 12 games.
Washington allows 79.6 points per game to opponents and ranks eighth in the league in defensive rating. Count on Gray making an impact across the board in this matchup, in which she has already had success. Her scoring takes the spotlight, and I lean the over on her scoring prop of 17.5 in general. But Atlanta has needed her to fill the stat sheet across the board, and I am backing her to record 26+ combined points, rebounds and assists tonight for the third straight time against the Mystics and ninth time this season.
