This is not exactly a tilt between two thriving teams. Quite the opposite.
While the Pirates were able to cap off yesterday’s doubleheader in Detroit with a Game 2 victory, that contest leaked into extra innings, which means Pittsburgh’s pitching staff was tasked with covering 18 whole innings on Thursday — the Tigers didn’t bat in the bottom of the ninth in Game 1. On top of that, each game also featured a rain delay, so I don’t think anyone would be shocked if the Pirates are a little sluggish this evening.
On the other side of the matchup, the Rangers will travel north after getting swept by the Royals this week. Texas is now three games below .500 and seven games back of the Astros is the AL West. It’s not the season that many envisioned for the club, as the Rangers were a popular dark horse World Series candidate back in March.
Let’s preview this interleague matchup with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rangers vs. Pirates prediction, preview
Remember back at the start of the season? When Jacob deGrom admitted that he wouldn’t be throwing as hard as he possibly could anymore and he got a little roughed up in his first three starts? Well, that feels like a long time ago, doesn’t it? Since April 18, deGrom has thrown 67.2 innings across 11 outings, and in that span, he’s managed a 1.73 ERA and a 2.57 FIP. It’s also a stretch where he’s amassed a 26.6% strikeout rate and held opponents to a microscopic .227 wOBA. That’s pretty damn good. For 2025 as a whole, deGrom ranks top 10 among qualified pitchers in both ERA (2.19) and xERA (2.99) and, even with “diminished” velocity, the veteran RHP sits in the 90th percentile in average fastball velocity (97.1) and chase rate (32.8%). He’s not pushing his body to the limit at age 37, but deGrom is still one of the best arms in the world when healthy.
So, will the Pirates be able to do any damage off the possible future Hall-of-Fame starter? I have my doubts! An eight-run explosion in Game 2 of Thursday’s doubleheader in Detroit raised the team’s offensive profile a touch, yet Pittsburgh still ranks second-worst in average (.216), ISO (.113) and wRC+ (70) in the month of June. In theory, the return of Bryan Reynolds from the paternity list should be a slight boost for the lineup, but aside from the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign, this has been the most difficult season of the outfielder’s career. Reynolds’ .357 expected wOBA suggests he’s been unlucky; however, at the end of the day, the former All-Star is hitting .222 with an 81 wRC+ in his 308 plate appearances. Woof.
If there is a bright spot in the Pirates’ organization, it’s the young pitching depth. Paul Skenes, Bubba Chandler and Jared Jones sort of steal the headlines, but even someone like Mike Burrows has shown a lot of potential. Burrows was dominant at Triple-A this season, registering a 2.51 ERA and 31.5% strikeout rate in his 32.1 innings of work. As such, he was called up to the big club last month. Success was not immediate, yet Burrows has looked amazing in his last three outings, surrendering just three earned runs over 15.0 innings. It’s a span where the 25-year-old RHP has also struck out 20 opponents. Burrow’s stuff won’t wow you like some arms in Pittsburgh’s system. Still, he’s currently getting it done at the MLB level. That’s all you can ask for.
Rangers vs. Pirates pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-106)
Aside from the presence of deGrom, these two teams both rank inside the bottom five of baseball in batting average and wRC+.
Strong Lean: Jacob deGrom Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-105)
Pittsburgh sports a 24.3% strikeout rate so far in June — the sixth-highest mark in MLB.
