The Tigers are in Tampa tonight, hoping to keep their momentum rolling against a Rays team that’s been firing on all cylinders recently. Detroit comes in fresh off a dominant 9-2 win, but the Rays are in the middle of a five-win-in-seven stretch, hungry to continue climbing the AL East standings. With both teams boasting strong pitching staffs and potent lineups, this matchup is shaping up to be a tight, high-energy contest. But in the end, it’s clear who has the edge tonight. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Friday night baseball game between the Rays and the Tigers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Rays vs. Tigers prediction, preview
Shane Baz (6-3, 4.54 ERA) will take the mound for the Rays, and while he’s been solid overall, he’s struggled with consistency at home. His ERA balloons to 5.36 at Steinbrenner Field, with home run and walk rates significantly up from last year. His 1.51 HR/9 and 3.46 BB/9 show how easy it is for opposing batters to get to him when he’s on home turf. The 27th percentile barrel rate and 43rd percentile hard-hit rate further expose his vulnerability to power hitters. While Baz still has a lot of upside (evidenced by his elite 107 Stuff+), it’s hard to ignore his susceptibility to the long ball—especially against a Tigers lineup that ranks in the top 10 for isolated power (.197) and home runs (22) this month. With the Rays only covering the run line 41% of the time at home, Baz’s struggles might leave them in a tighter spot than expected.
On the other side, Jack Flaherty (5-7, 4.03 ERA) will take the mound for Detroit. Flaherty has been inconsistent this season, but he’s shown glimpses of his past dominance. He has elite strikeout potential with a 10.66 K/9 rate, but he also struggles with command—his 1.66 HR/9 and 3.32 BB/9 tell a similar story to Baz. Flaherty was hit hard by the Reds in his last outing, allowing seven earned runs over 4.2 innings, but he’s been solid in five of his last six starts prior to that. Facing a Rays offense that’s been on fire, particularly against right-handed pitchers, Flaherty will need his strikeout stuff at its best to navigate through this lineup. The Rays’ bats, led by Junior Caminero’s 17 homers and Yandy Díaz’s red-hot stretch, should have their chances against a pitcher with such a high home run rate. Flaherty’s 3.32 BB/9 and 1.66 HR/9 could very well get exposed by Tampa’s powerful lineup.
Tigers vs. Rays pick, best bet
The Rays have the edge offensively, sporting a .320 OBP in June and a .253 batting average, including a league-leading 123 wRC+ in this month. This gives them the advantage over a Tigers lineup that, while potent, has struggled in matchups against elite pitching. Detroit has the third-highest wRC+ in June (118), but much of that success came in hitter-friendly parks like Comerica. Tonight’s game in Steinbrenner Field could be a different challenge, especially as the Rays have one of the best pitching staffs in the league (3.49 team ERA) and limit hard contact well. The Rays have also hit the moneyline in 58.5% of games when favored this season, and they’re currently 10-4 with Baz starting. Detroit, on the other hand, has been less successful on the moneyline with Flaherty starting, posting a 5-9 record.
Given the current form of both teams, I’m leaning towards the Rays to win this one. The Tigers might have a potent offense, but their pitching inconsistency against a team that thrives on right-handed pitching makes them vulnerable. I’m locking in Rays Moneyline at -110.
Best bet: Rays (-110) vs. Tigers
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