The Friday MLB slate looks absolutely loaded with all 30 teams in action across the day. The evening window includes six games starting between 7 and 7:15 p.m. EST, one of which takes place under the iconic arch of St. Louis, Missouri. The Cardinals host the Cincinnati Reds tonight for an exciting contest between division rivals.
Here’s a Cardinals vs. Reds prediction and pick for the outing, which kicks off a three-game series tonight.
Cardinals vs. Reds prediction, preview
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals held control of second place in the NL Central by a comfortable margin earlier this season, but those days are long gone now as rivals shot up the standings. Three’s a party — the Cards, Brewers, and Reds are all within one game of each other for that coveted second-place spot.
St. Louis’ season looks pretty nice thus far and they’ve arguably overdelivered on preseason expectations. The team boasts the MLB’s third-best AVG and 13th-best OPS and the seventh-most runs scored (despite their main flaw remaining a lack of power at 22nd in home runs). Cardinals may be red, but their bats are crimson-hot as well at fifth in OPS and third in runs over the last week as they enter this series off a recent sweep against the White Sox.
The Cardinals’ pitching staff remains pedestrian overall, ranking 20th in ERA and 16th in WHIP on the year. They’ve allowed the second-fewest walks and third-fewest home runs, both encouraging marks, but they also hold the second-fewest strikeouts of any MLB staff. To truly contend, the stable of arms may need some tweaks.
Cincinnati Reds
As mentioned above, the Reds are vying with the Cardinals and Brewers for the second spot in the NL Central behind the Cubs. With that in mind, this series may hold some serious implications for the eventual postseason race, so a chance to surpass St. Louis looks like a major storyline to follow here.
The Reds rank 14th in AVG, 11th in OPS and eighth in runs scored this season with a competent offensive lineup with plenty of youth. Cincinnati also sits 12th in homers and tied for eighth in walks drawn, though they do rank 23rd in strikeouts. thankfully, their opponent this series doesn’t excel in at sitting batters down swinging. Also of note, the Reds have the 10th-most stolen bases on the campaign with 61. Over the last seven days, Cincinnati also looks as hot as St. Louis with the second-best AVG, sixth-best OPS and fifth-most runs scored, so this has the makings of an offensive showdown between in-form teams.
Also much like the Cardinals, the Reds’ arms aren’t exactly spectacular overall. The team falls 17th in ERA, 11th in WHIP, and 12th in walks; however, they’re also bottom-10 in strikeouts themselves.
Cardinals vs. Reds pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Cardinals as -151 favorites to win at home on the Moneyline tonight. The Reds are +124 themselves to win outright with a combined run total of nine.
The Cardinals start 26-year-old righty Andre Pallante this evening. In 14 starts this season, he’s pitched to the tune of a 4.83 ERA and 1.38 WHIP while striking out 54 batters over 76.1 innings. He duels against the Reds’ Brady Singer, a veteran right-hander with some pretty comparable basic metrics. Singer has a 4.29 ERA and 1.34 WHIP with 60 punchouts over a 74.2-inning sample.
Singer’s form lately looks better than Pallante’s, the latter of whom allowed 12 earned runs over his last three starts. I do think the Reds see a slight advantage there, and there’s not a massive differential between these teams’ bullpens. This is a game where I’m looking toward recent stretches of play, a factor where Cincinnati also sees the upper hand at 7-3 across their last 10 games compared to a 4-6 record for St. Louis.
With that in mind, I’m targeting Reds Moneyline tonight at plus odds as they start this best-of-three series on the right foot.
Best bet: CIN Reds (+126)
Click the odds to tail!
