In the final matchup of tonight’s three-game WNBA slate, the Las Vegas Aces will host the Seattle Storm. This will be the third matchup between these two teams, with both sides picking up a victory against each other already this season.
The Storm scored 102, their highest mark of the season, against the Aces on May 25. Seattle holds a 7-5 record, good for fifth in the league, and have won four of its past five games. Las Vegas, however, has dropped four of its past five and has a 5-6 record.
Seattle enters as a 1.5-point favorite and -125 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Aces hold +105 odds of pulling off the upset with the game total set at 160.5.
Storm vs. Aces preview
The Storm are playing good basketball of late and trying to enter championship conversations. They are coming off a convincing 98-67 victory over the Los Angeles Sparks in the previous game and also took down the Minnesota Lynx last week. Seattle ranks sixth in the league in scoring, tallies the third-fewest turnovers, and is shooting the best three-point percentage. It averages the second-fewest rebounds per game and ranks sixth in opponents’ points per game allowed.
Skylar Diggins headlines the offensive production, averaging 17.8 points and 6.2 assists per game while shooting 42.2% from beyond the three-point arc. Nneka Ogwumike pitches in 16.5 points and 8.2 rebounds per game. Gabby Williams also averages 14.1 points, 4.5 assists and 2.7 steals while shooting a team-best 42.9% on three-point attempts.
The Aces have sputtered a bit at the midpoint of the season but should be seeing a boost today. A’ja Wilson has been upgraded to questionable after missing the previous three games with a concussion. The Aces were 1-2 without the three-time MVP, but there have been problems with the team even when she has been active. Las Vegas ranks ninth in scoring, last in field goal percentage and 11th in rebounds per game. Defensively, the Aces allow 82.5 points per game, which ranks eighth, and opponents are shooting the fourth-best percentage against them this year.
Wilson hasn’t started the season up to her lofty standards, but she’s still averaging an impressive 20.9 points, 9.6 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 2.6 blocks per game. Jackie Young has stepped up and is averaging 18.1 points, 3.8 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game. Jewell Loyd leads the team in three-point percentage at 41.8% and is averaging 11.2 points and 4.2 rebounds, while Chelsea Gray adds 14.5 points per contest.
Storm vs. Aces prediction, pick
Wilson’s availability is a key variable in this game, but I am backing the Seattle Storm either way. The Aces have some legitimate problems that not even the MVP can cover up in the short term. Seattle has won four of its last five and is shooting the best field goal and three-point percentages this season. It got fully rolling in its first matchup against Las Vegas, with the 102 points as evidence of this.
The Aces are 3-8 against the spread this season and 1-4 ATS when playing at home. They are also 0-3 against the spread as underdogs. There is still plenty of talent on this Aces roster, but it is taking some time to settle following the Kelsey Plum trade. They are posting a -4.0 net rating on the season, which ranks ninth out of the 13 WNBA teams.
In contrast, the Storm have found their identity and are playing at a high level of late. Their lone blemish over the past five games has been the loss to the Valkyries, in which Seattle was out-rebounded 33-20. Rebounding is the weakest spot on this Storm team, but Las Vegas is not built to expose this. The Aces rank equal to or worse in the rebounding metrics, with both teams in the bottom three in rebounding percentage and in the bottom two in rebounds per game.
Expect the Storm to continue performing at a high level and for there to be some growing pains as Wilson reintroduces herself to the team. These are two teams trending in opposite directions with their current play. I am buying into Seattle’s recent stretch and like them to continue building momentum by winning outright tonight. While I would not run away from the -1.5 point spread, I am sticking with the moneyline for some added security.
Best Bet: Seattle Storm Moneyline (-125)
In addition, I am backing Ogwumike to pull in over 8.5 rebounds in the matchup. You can read my full write-up for WNBA player props on the night’s slate here.
The Las Vegas Aces have struggled on the boards this season. They rank 11th in rebounds per game, allow the second-most rebounds per contest, and own a 47.3% rebound rate — which is only better than the Sun. A’ja Wilson has been upgraded to questionable for tonight’s game after missing the past three games with a concussion. If the three-time MVP can return to the floor, it would help their rebounding outlook. However, Wilson has played eight games already this season, and the rebounding troubles have still been evident.
Enter Nneka Ogwumike, who is leading the Seattle Storm with 8.2 rebounds per game. The 6-foot-2 forward has pulled in as many as 18 rebounds in a game this season but has been held to exactly eight in both matchups with the Aces thus far.
Expect Ogwumike to play in attack mode tonight. She is creative in finishing around the rim and will take advantage of Las Vegas’ weak interior defense. The Aces allow 38.2 points per game in the paint, the second-worst rate in the WNBA. Ogwumike should have success generating additional possessions and put-backs on the offensive glass while still anchoring the defensive side of the ball.
She hasn’t had the most success rebounding against the Aces, but this should change in the third matchup of the season. With or without Wilson on the floor, I like Ogwumike to grab over 8.5 rebounds tonight.
