Friday night is jam-packed with baseball as 28 of the 30 MLB teams take to the diamonds under the lights. While it looks like it’ll be a big night for offense based on the weather forecasts and parks in play, it also shapes up to be a solid night for some starting pitcher prop bets. Some exciting options are taking the bump and giving us plenty of good props to choose from. After checking out the options and considering the matchup, environment and recent form, my top plays of the day come from Jacob deGrom, Zack Wheeler and Hunter Brown.
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Best Starting Pitcher Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Jacob deGrom under 4.5 hits allowed (+110)
The Rangers and Pirates meet in the first game of the evening, as deGrom looks to continue his impressive bounce-back year after being limited to just nine starts over the last two seasons. This year, in 14 starts, he is 6-2 with a 2.19 ERA, 3.23 FHIP and only a 0.91 WHIP.
On the road, deGrom has held opponents to a .186 batting average and given out just six walks in 28 1/3 innings. He has held opponents under this hit line in three of his last five starts, allowing five hits in his other two games. He hasn’t allowed more than five hits in any of his last nine starts, with just over half of those coming in under this line.
I love getting deGrom at plus odds, since the Pirates have the third-lowest batting average in the majors at just .225. They also average only 7.4 hits per game this season. In the last week, the Pirates have hit only .191 as a team with 38 hits in six games. Since they’re significantly below league average, I think deGrom will be able to hold them under the hits allowed prop on the road in Pittsburgh.
Zack Wheeler to record a win (+125)
The Phillies open their series against the Mets in a flat-footed tie atop the NL East. They have the luxury of giving the ball to their ace at home to start the series, while the Mets have to call up an option from Triple-A.
I expect Wheeler to get plenty of run support, as I covered in my MLB Stacks for today. Wheeler has been excellent all season long, winning seven of his 14 starts, compiling a 2.76 ERA, 2.75 FIP, 11.25 K/9 and 0.89 WHIP.
Wheeler has won four of his seven starts at home, including his most recent outing, which was last Sunday against the Blue Jays. He got a no-decision earlier this season against the Mets after giving up two earned runs in six innings, but a similar performance on Friday should set him up for the win based on the matchup.
Wheeler has allowed one or zero earned runs in five of his last six outings, and he continues to pitch like a true ace at the top of the Phillies’ rotation. Many factors play into a “To Record a Win” prop, but they all seem to line up nicely for Wheeler as he toes the rubber at home this Friday night.
Hunter Brown over 6.5 strikeouts (-145)
Normally, I look for a little more juice in a strikeout prop than -145, but I’m starting with this as the bottom rung of a “ladder” play this Friday. If you aren’t familiar with the idea, a “ladder” is betting the same prop at multiple lines with the odds getting progressively higher the further up the ladder you go. Based on how aggressive you want to be, you can distribute your investment on the higher rungs or the lower, “safer” picks.
Brown’s strikeout ladder starts at 7+ strikeouts at -145, but I also like climbing it to 8+ at +120, 9+ at +220, and even all the way to 10+ at +400. In his last start, Brown had a season-high 12 strikeouts against the Twins, so you could even be ultra-aggressive and play a little on 12+ at +1400.
Brown has 105 strikeouts in 86 innings this season while going 8-3 with a 1.88 ERA, 2.65 FIP and 0.93 WHIP. In his last 10 starts, he has 83 strikeouts in 62 innings, averaging 8.3 Ks per outing. He has at least six strikeouts (the lowest rung) in eight of those starts and at least nine strikeouts in seven of those outings.
Boosting Brown’s strikeout potential in this matchup is the fact that the Angels strike out more often than any other team in the majors. They have a 26.5% strikeout rate on the season, averaging 9.7 strikeouts per game. Over the last two weeks, they average 9.8 strikeouts per game with a 26.9% strikeout rate.
If Brown can stay locked in like he has been over his last few starts, this should be a great spot to climb his strikeout ladder to a big win Friday night. He should be able to comfortably hit his over at seven on this play in my starting pitcher prob bets.
