Sometimes it’s fun to sweat out a pick for days or even for a whole season if you’re picking an award winner or a champion. Sometimes, though, it’s also fun to just take a quick-hit pick where the results are almost instant. The MLB has done a lot to speed up the game over the last few years, adding in the pitch clock and trying to make games end faster. However, even with the average game time dropping, one of the quickest ways to jump on the board for baseball picks is a NRFI (no run first inning) prop bet.
Here are my favorite spots for a NRFI bet on Friday night’s packed slate.
Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins (-135)
At Target Field in Minneapolis, the Twins and Brewers start their Midwest inter-league clash with a fascinating starting pitching matchup. Veteran Joe Ryan gets the ball for the home team against Brewers top prospect Jacob Misiorowski.
Ryan is a great option who I highlighted in my top cash game plays. The veteran has allowed two or fewer earned runs in six of his last eight starts, going 6-0. During that stretch, he threw six shutout innings against Milwaukee. He has a 2.93 ERA in his 14 games and has been especially sharp at home. On top of that, the Brewers have scored in the first inning the second-lowest percentage of games all season.
The higher risk is on the visiting team side of things, since Misiorowski is much less proven and the Twins’ offense just hung 12 runs on the Reds on Thursday to snap their six-game losing streak.
However, I think Misiorowski is the real deal and will have no problem holding up his end of the NRFI prop. In Triple-A, the six-foot-seven righty had a 2.13 ERA with 80 strikeouts in 13 games to earn his promotion to the majors. He sparkled in his debut, hurling five no-hit innings against the Cardinals. He left in the sixth with cramping but is ready to return to the mound without missing a turn in the rotation.
This blend of veteran and rookie will be a fun matchup to watch all game long, but I think they’ll combine for a scoreless first inning.
Kansas City Royals at San Diego Padres (-125)
The Royals and Padres have both had their struggles at the plate over the last few weeks, and both have done a good job as teams at holding thier opponents to no runs in the first inning.
The Royals have the best NRFI against them in the majors, and the Padres rank No. 5. In this matchup, it’s Nick Pivetta for the home team Friars against Michael Lorenzen and the Royals.
With cooler temperatures expected at pitcher-friendly Petco Park, the game will likely be low-scoring overall, and I think both pitchers will get through the first unscathed.
Pivetta is 7-2 in his 14 starts, owning a 3.40 ERA and 3.19 FIP. He’s been much better at home, with a 2.40 ERA and 2.54 FIP at Petco Park. He has only given up a run in the first inning in one of his seven home starts, and that was in his start against the Dodgers earlier this month. While both the Dodgers and Royals wear blue, the similarities in their offenses pretty much end there. The Royals are tied for the fewest runs in the majors over the last two weeks and are hitting only .235 as a team during that span with a .299 wOBA.
Lorenzen is the risky play in this NRFI prop, but he’s been decent this year early in games, posting a 2.81 ERA the first time through the order but a 6.84 ERA the second time through the order. He has only given up a run in the first inning in two of his 14 games this season.
Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers (-125)
The Nats and Dodgers start their series in Chavez Ravine by sending their workhorse lefties to the mound. Like with Ryan and Misiorowski, we have a veteran vs. a young stud in this matchup as Clayton Kershaw faces MacKenzie Gore.
Kershaw has looked solid in his six starts, posting a 3.25 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. I highlighted him as one of my top MLB DFS Bargains of the day, where you can find all the details of his six starts since returning. For this prop, it’s worth noting that he gave up a first-inning run in three of his six starts but not in his last two outings.
The Nationals have a lefty-heavy lineup, which should play into the veteran’s strengths in the first inning. Washington had dropped 11 straight games before getting a win on Thursday against the Rockies. I think Kershaw will keep them quiet again on Friday.
On the other side, it’s always scary picking against the Dodgers offense, especially with Shohei Ohtani lurking to crush the NRFI dreams with one swing of the bat. However, Gore has been excellent this season, posting a 2.89 ERA and 2.72 FIP in his 15 starts. He has given up a first-inning run in four of those 15 starts, but has been successful in his half of the NRFI in 73% of his games.
It’s a tough matchup, but I think he’ll be able to get through the first inning and help this NRFI hit at the -125.
While none of these NFRI are extremely long odds, if you want longer odds, you can play them in a round robin style or stack them into a parlay that would deliver at +464 if all three hit this Friday.
