All 30 MLB teams are in action across Friday’s schedule and the night games bring a handful of intriguing matchups. Those include a duel between the Great Lakes States — the Minnesota Twins and Milwaukee Brewers, a couple of squads with similar records and talent levels, each attempt to push for second place in their respective divisions.
Here’s a Twins vs. Brewers prediction and pick for the outing, which kicks off a three-game series tonight.
Twins vs. Brewers prediction, preview
Minnesota Twins
The Twins are 37-37 on the campaign overall but have skidded a bit lately with a 3-7 record across their last 10 games. They sit third in the AL Central standings but remain just half a game behind the Cleveland Guardians for second, so there’s hope they can pull things together and push up a spot as soon as this evening.
Minnesota’s offense ranks 19th in AVG, 16th in OPS, and 18th in runs scored as we near the halfway mark of the season. Royce Lewis remains sidelined with an injury, a fairly significant loss despite the former first-overall pick’s struggles this year so far. Now, Trevor Larnach has been scratched from the lineup, an even bigger hole to fill in the order. The offense hasn’t performed spectacularly over their recent hot streak, still ranking in the upper ranges of the middle of the pack in those categories. However, they’re doing enough to get by as they work their way back from a poor month in which they’re 6-11 so far.
At 16th in ERA and 10th in WHIP, the pitching staff generally performs better than the batting order does. Notably, the Twins’ arms have surrendered the fewest walks of any team while striking out the 12th-most opposing batters, so they’re generally elite where their K/BB stands.
Milwaukee Brewers
As for the Brew Crew, they won their 40th game of the campaign last night 8-7 over a strong Chicago Cubs team. Milwaukee sits 5-5 across their last 10 games, but that stretch does include three wins over the St. Louis Cardinals, another NL Central contender.
Milwaukee’s bats rank 23rd in AVG and 24th in OPS, but they’ve scored the 13th-most runs of any team on the year. At 12th in walks drawn, they general have a better eye than the 22nd-ranked Twins, but they do fall lower than Minnesota by a 12-homer margin despite the occasional scoring fireworks. Over the last week though, the Brewers are top-four in AVG and OPS. Still, they haven’t been able to score despite those numbers at 19th in runs over that span.
Where the pitchers are concerned, Milwaukee sits 13th in ERA and 19th in WHIP overall. Unlike the Twins, the Brewers walk a ton of batters at 24th in the category with nearly 70 more walks allowed. However, they do come in at 13th in strikeouts and surprisingly rank 13th in opponent AVG, as well.
Twins vs. Brewers pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Twins enter Friday’s action as -158 favorites to win on the Moneyline while the Brewers are listed as a +129 underdog. The run total sits at eight.
Twins ace Joe Ryan takes the mound tonight and instantly gives Minnesota a boost with his excellent level of play. The 29-year-old right-hander has thrown 80.0 innings this season, amassing a 2.93 ERA and very impressive 0.90 WHIP with 89 strikeouts over that sample. Wins aren’t a perfect pitcher stat, but it’s certainly noteworthy Ryan boasts a 7-2 record in 14 appearances.
Meanwhile, a young but unproven talent sees the starting nod for the Brewers. 23-year-old right-hander Jacob Misiorowski made his MLB debut on June 12 against the Cardinals and notched a hitless outing with five strikeouts and four walks in 5.0 innings. It’s unknown whether he can muster a similar performance tonight, but for a better idea of his numbers, look at his Triple-A production. In 13 games this season before the call-up, Misiorowski logged a fantastic 2.13 ERA and 1.09 WHIP with 80 strikeouts in just 63.1 innings.
Misiorowski impressed in his first start, but Ryan remains a more proven talent and should get the better of the Brewers this evening. He’s one of the best hurlers in the sport right now, so I quite like under 4.5 hits for the star at +100 odds. He’s gone under this line in nine of his 14 appearances, and against a Milwaukee squad inside the bottom-seven teams in AVG, we’re going back to the well here.
Best bet: Joe Ryan under 4.5 hits allowed (+100)
Click the odds to tail!
