The Guardians and Athletics are two different teams with vastly different expectations, yet their records aren’t that far apart.
Cleveland is second in the AL Central with the Twins and Royals slightly behind. All three trail the Tigers by about 10 games. The Guardians have a 37-36 record with a -24 run differential this season.
Meanwhile, the Athletics are 31-46 with a -126 point differential in the basement of the AL West. They are not considered playoff contenders in the slightest, unlike the Guardians, who could sneak in via the wild card.
Despite the differences, Friday’s game is projected to be a tight one. The Guardians are -123 favorites and the game total is set at over/under nine runs on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Athletics are +101 underdogs.
Here’s my prediction and pick for Friday’s Guardians vs. Athletics matchup.
Guardians vs. Athletics prediction
Aaron Judge, Tarik Skubal and Cal Raleigh have dominated headlines in the American League this season, and rightfully so. These three have been excellent, but Jose Ramirez deserves some more attention.
Year after year, without fail, Ramirez is an MVP candidate. He has five top five MVP finishes since 2017 and another two ranked No. 6 and No. 10 in the AL MVP voting. He’s also finished top three in three of these seasons, with the only unranked season being 2019.
Ramirez is consistently one of the best players in baseball, yet he’s often overlooked. He’s batting .318 with a .380 on-base percentage through 71 games this season. He’s slugging 13 homers to go with 35 RBI, 20 stolen bases, 26 walks and just 34 strikeouts.
Even with the Guardians’ offense struggling, Ramirez is reliably producing. There are few players that give bettors confidence like Ramirez does. He’ll face off against Jeffrey Springs, who has a 4.52 ERA through 79.2 innings.
Springs is a lefty, so Ramirez will bat right-handed tonight. It’s a smaller sample size, but Ramirez has been much better against lefties this season. He’s batting .389 with a .988 OPS. Between Ramirez and Steven Kwan, the Guardians should be able to put up enough runs to handle the Athletics.
The Athletics have allowed 454 runs this season, second-most to only the Rockies. Even a struggling offense in the Guardians (278 runs scored) can benefit from this.
Guardians vs. Athletics pick, best bet
Yes, the Athletics allow the second-most runs in MLB, but let’s not forget that the Guardians are a solid pitching club. Cleveland allows 302 runs, which ranks 12th in the majors.
Tanner Bibee is starting for the Guardians tonight with a 3.79 ERA through 80.2 innings. He’s allowed two earned runs in back-to-back games against Houston and Seattle, both of whom have similar runs scored to the Athletics.
Cleveland also has a 3.66 reliever ERA, the eighth-best mark in the majors. If Bibee exits early, the bullpen can certainly handle business. Between this and the Guardians’ weak offense, the under should hit tonight.
Yes, the Athletics allow a lot of runs, but the line is set at over/under nine runs. Cleveland should control the pace of the game, and unless it gets out of hand, the under seems to be the best choice.