This is the second game of a three-game series in New York between the Yankees and visiting Baltimore Orioles.
Zach Eflin is scheduled to pitch for Baltimore while Clarke Schmidt should get the nod for New York.
Orioles at Yankees prediction, preview
Zach Eflin used to average 94.8 mph on the fastball. Now, he’s down to 91.9 mph. The strikeout rate is 15.8% and he’s allowed 12 home runs in 58 innings. The 4.81 ERA is supported by the 5.01 FIP.
Lefties have absolutely crushed him this season, slashing .305/.333/.625 with 10 of the 12 home runs hit off Eflin this season. He’s been bad both at home and on the road.
Eflin has allowed more than three earned runs three times this season: eight earned run in 5.1 innings against Washington in May, four earned runs in five innings against Boston in May and seven earned runs in five innings against Tampa Bay in his most recent outing. This will be the first time facing the Yankees this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Yankees have struck out at the eighth-highest rate while having the second-best ISO. The wOBA is third-best in MLB.
Clarke Schmidt has been remarkably consistent in his career. The K/9 has been in the 8.5 range for three seasons. Last season was the “outlier” with a 9.81 K/9. The walk rate has been in the 3.5 range while the HR/9 has been in the 0.8 area. Schmidt averages 94.6 mph on the fastball and has a 12.4% swinging strike rate. The average exit velocity is 87.8 mph while the barrel rate is 5.9%, with a 33.7% hard hit rate.
Schmidt has been effective against both lefties and righties, but lefties have had more success against him. Five of the six home runs have come off their bats while the FIP is 4.73. He’s been good both at home and on the road, but the strikeout rate has been much higher on the road.
Schmidt has allowed more than three earned runs once this season, a five earned run outing in his second start of the season. In his two most recent outings, he’s pitched 7.2 and six innings without allowing an earned run. This will be the first time facing Baltimore this season.
The Orioles have struck out at the fourth-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being fourth in ISO. The wOBA is ninth-best.
As for bullpens, Baltimore has the 22nd-lowest FIP while New York has the 11th-lowest.
Orioles at Yankees, Best Bet
I like the Yankees to pummel Baltimore pitching on Saturday. The only question is how badly? On the flip side, while the Orioles have power, they do strike out a ton and I think Schmidt makes it three straight quality outings.
