Just a week ago, the New York Yankees’ offense was the envy of the league, and it looked as if it would get even better with Giancarlo Stanton’s long-awaited season debut. But then the Yankees got shut out in three straight games as part of a six-game losing streak, inexplicably getting swept by their closest rivals, the Boston Red Sox.
New York managed a 7-3 win against the Los Angeles Angels in the series finale last night, as Aaron Judge, Paul Goldschmidt, and Trent Grisham all went deep, and will hope to build off of that in a weekend series against the Baltimore Orioles.
Max Fried will take the mound for the Yankees, while Baltimore will put its faith in Tomoyuki Sugano.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Orioles at Yankees prediction, preview
Here are the OPS figures for some of New York’s hitters during its six-game skid: Cody Bellinger .638, Jasson Domínguez .498, Grisham .485, Judge .377, and Goldschmidt .325. That’s sort of unfathomable for a team with that much talent, especially going against pitching staffs as bad as Boston’s and Los Angeles’. Weird things can happen in baseball, though, so the losing streak didn’t exactly expose any major red flags. In the long run, the Yankees will probably be fine, and in the immediate future, I wouldn’t be surprised if their offense got back on track all at once.
Could that explosion happen tonight against Sugano? While it’s possible, the 35-year-old Japanese hurler has been pretty solid in his rookie season, never giving up more than four runs in a game, though he hasn’t lasted through the fifth inning in either of his last two contests and the bullpen behind him is among the league’s worst. His relatively smooth transition to the majors shouldn’t have come as a huge surprise; over 12 seasons with Nippon Professional Baseball’s Yomiuri Giants, he posted a 2.45 ERA in the world’s second-most competitive league. Sugano’s an off-speed specialist with pinpoint control, but he induces whiffs at just a third-percentile rate and strikeouts at a second-percentile rate. His track record against New York is good, as he threw five scoreless innings at Camden Yards on April 28.
However, in that outing, the Yankees started Will Warren, their worst rotation member by WAR. This time, New York will counter with Fried, the prized offseason acquisition and former NL Cy Young runner-up who’s off to a fantastic start in the Junior Circuit so far, leading all of the major leagues with nine wins and pitching to a career-best 1.89 ERA. Take out his one blow-up start, a five-inning, six-run affair against the Los Angeles Dodgers, and that ERA drops to 1.56. Like Sugano, he also excels at limiting walks, but his weaknesses aren’t as pronounced, as he ranks in the 40th percentile or better in every Statcast category.
Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees pick, best bet
Best Bet: Baltimore Orioles +1.5 (+123)
While I wouldn’t be surprised if the Yankees’ offense built on its win yesterday, the Orioles are in pretty hot form, having won 13 of their last 19 months. Sugano has adapted to the speed of Major League Baseball, Gunnar Henderson has slashed .377/.449/.475 this month, and Jackson Holliday is getting there, too. This game could be close.
Strong Lean: Max Fried 7+ Strikeouts (-110)
For all of the strides that Baltimore’s offense has made since interim head coach Tony Mansolino took over, the Orioles still strike out too much, posting the third-highest punch-out rate in baseball this season. Fried tends to throw more than half of his pitches in the zone, but Baltimore has the 10th-lowest in-zone contact percentage.
