There was rain in Detroit on Wednesday night — a lot of it. Enough of it where yesterday’s game between theTigers and the Pirates was postponed and a doubleheader was scheduled for this afternoon. Game 1 of that doubleheader is set to begin at 1:10 p.m. ET.
Well… It should begin at 1:10 p.m. ET. The thing is: There’s more rain expected in the Detroit area today. Seems like this doubleheader could be delayed.
On a positive note, that gives us more time to break it down. Let’s preview this interleague matinee matchup with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pirates vs. Tigers Game 1 prediction, preview
There’s only one place to start this preview and that’s with Tarik Skubal, who is almost lapping the field when it comes to pitcher fWAR this season (3.6). Skubal is the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner, yet he might be having a better campaign in 2025 than in 2024. Across 14 starts and 90.1 innings, Skubal owns a 1.99 ERA and a league-best 1.87 FIP. He’s struck out 111 opponents in those frames and walked just nine. Nine! For context, Skubal sports a K/BB ratio of 12.3. The next-highest figure among all qualified pitchers? Matthew Liberatore’s 6.00 mark. He isn’t even in the same stratosphere as the rest of the pack.
Taking the mound for the Pirates will be another LHP in the form of Andrew Heaney. Spoiler alert: Heaney won’t be pitching for Pittsburgh much longer. The 34-year-old signed a one-year, $5.25 million deal with the Pirates this offseason, and Heaney is almost sure to be moved at the trade deadline to a contending team. That said, the veteran’s 3.33 ERA in 2025 is a lot of smoke and mirrors. Heaney’s average fastball velocity has dropped each of the past four seasons and its taken the lefty’s strikeout rate with it. This season, Heaney’s struck out only 18.5% of the batter’s he’s faced — the first time his strikeout rate has been below 20% since 2015. So how is Heaney getting these outs? To be completely honest, a .234 BABIP is carrying a lot of the weight, as is an 81.8% strand rate. That’s why Heaney’s expected ERA is hovering almost a run-and-a-half higher than his actual figure (4.72).
I’d expect the Tigers to get to Heaney a little this afternoon, which means Pittsburgh’s lineup will have to step-up against Skubal if the team wants to hang around in this one. I just wouldn’t get too optimistic. The Pirates have struggled to score all year long, but especially so far in June. In the month, Pittsburgh ranks dead-last in batting average (.211), wOBA (.267) and wRC+ (65). So this is literally the best pitcher in the world in a matchup with MLB’s worst lineup. This is the hydrogen bomb versus coughing baby meme come to life, my friends.
Pirates vs. Tigers Game 1 pick, best bet
Best Bet: Tigers -1.5 (-145)
It’s baseball. So anything can happen. But Skubal should make quick work of a lineup that owns a MLB-low 65 wRC+ in June.
Strong Lean: Spencer Torkelson 2+ Total Bases (+100)
Torkelson sports a .377 ISO and a 174 wRC+ in his 88 plate appearances against LHPs this season.
