The Mets and Braves meet again in what could decide the tone of the series. With New York holding the NL East lead but struggling to find any rhythm, especially in their recent losses, tonight’s game will test their resilience. The Braves, on the other hand, have quietly gained momentum, but they’re still sitting below .500 and need to make a serious push to climb into the playoff conversation. The stakes are high, and this game will provide both teams with a chance to shift their stories. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Thursday night baseball game between the Braves and the Mets.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Braves vs. Mets prediction, preview
Clay Holmes, a solid 7-3 with a 2.87 ERA this season, will take the mound for the Mets. The right-hander has shown consistency with his command, relying on a 53.6% ground ball rate. Holmes’ ability to limit hard contact has been crucial, and with his control on point, he should be able to keep the Braves’ lineup in check. However, he’s facing a Braves offense that’s started to heat up. They’ve been quietly productive in recent games, averaging 5.7 runs per game over their last five. Atlanta has power up and down the lineup, with Matt Olson’s 45 RBIs and Ronald Acuña Jr.’s .431 SLG keeping pitchers on edge.
Spencer Strider, the Braves’ starter, has had his ups and downs. The 26-year-old right-hander is still figuring out his form after a lengthy injury hiatus, but his last outing against Colorado was a statement—six shutout innings with 13 strikeouts. Strider’s 4.35 ERA this season is deceptive, as his SIERA suggests he’s been unlucky. However, his high fly ball rate (45%) could prove costly against a Mets team that ranks sixth in home runs this season. With Pete Alonso and Juan Soto in the heart of the Mets’ lineup, Strider will need to be sharp to avoid giving up the long ball.
Pete Alonso has been on a tear recently, hitting .310 with four home runs and 10 RBIs in his last 10 games. His slugging percentage has surged to .630 during this stretch, showcasing his elite power potential. Juan Soto, while not as explosive, and with plenty of concerns about his effort, has been consistently getting on base with a .400 OBP over the past 10 games. He’s hit .250 with two home runs and five RBIs, but his advanced metrics—like a 17.1% walk rate—indicate his plate discipline remains strong. Both players are crucial to the Mets’ lineup, and their recent form will be pivotal against Strider tonight.
The Mets have been teetering on the edge of disaster lately. They’ve lost five straight games, and their offense is struggling to find consistency. While they’ve been solid against right-handed pitchers (including a .813 OPS over the last 10 days), they’ll face a different challenge tonight. Strider’s strikeout stuff could give the Mets trouble, especially with hitters like Jeff McNeil and Brandon Nimmo struggling against high-velocity arms.
Mets vs. Braves pick, best bet
On the flip side, Atlanta has shown recent signs of life, particularly in their home park. Their pitching staff has been solid, with a 3.33 ERA over the last five games. However, with Strider still trying to find his rhythm, and the Mets’ top bats due for a breakout, the Braves could have their hands full. Still, their overall depth, with players like Olson, Riley, and Acuña leading the way, should give them the upper hand.
The betting lines are close, but I’m leaning toward the Braves at -1.5. Despite Holmes’ solid numbers, Strider is primed for another breakout performance, and the Braves’ offense is more than capable of handling Holmes on a good day. With a 4-1 record in their last five home games against New York and the Mets’ recent struggles, I like Atlanta to cover the spread and keep the momentum going.
Best bet: Braves -1.5 (+160) vs. Mets
Braves keep rolling—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
