I keep focusing on the Colorado Rockies and their 16-57 start — although they’ve actually been somewhat better in the last few weeks — so much that I almost forget that the Chicago White Sox, who posted just a 41-121 record in 2024, aren’t all that much better this season. Chicago is on a six-game losing streak to drop to 23-50, and even noted White Sox fan Pope Leo XIV isn’t helping. They’ll try to avoid a seventh straight defeat with a 7:40 p.m. clash against the St. Louis Cardinals, who destroyed them, 12-2, in the series opener last night.
St. Louis will start arguably its best pitcher, veteran Sonny Gray, while Chicago will go with promising second-year pro Sean Burke.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cardinals at White Sox prediction, preview
The White Sox have been mostly competitive throughout their six-game losing streak, falling by a single run thrice, and taking one of three against the AL West-leading Houston Astros is fairly impressive. But that momentum largely blew up last night in the series opener, as the Cardinals blasted staff ace Shane Smith for six hits and six runs (five earned) in just 4.1 innings, causing his ERA to jump from 2.37 to 2.85. Not a single Chicago pitcher survived his innings unscathed, and Brendan Donovan and Alec Burleson combined for seven hits. The White Sox did manage five hits against Matthew Liberatore in his six innings, but he escaped with just two runs conceded.
I don’t like Chicago’s prospects against Gray, who finished as the runner-up for the AL Cy Young Award in 2023 and is still an effective pitcher at age 35. He did get blown up in his most recent outing, conceding eight hits and six earned runs in 4.1 innings against the Milwaukee Brewers, but in the two starts before that, he’d combined for 13.1 scoreless innings, and he hasn’t gone more than two appearances without a quality start since his first two starts of the season. Gray’s control is excellent, and though he gives up a few too many barrels, the White Sox rank just seventh-to-last in barrel rate, so they aren’t primed to capitalize on his biggest weakness.
Burke, too, had a rough go of it his last time out, giving up eight hits and seven earned runs in 3.2 innings in a 10-2 loss to the Astros. In that game, he got fairly unlucky — his FIP figure remained constant at 5.13 — but the fact that his ERA remains lower than both his FIP and his expected ERA implies that he may still have more luck to give up. Ranking in the seventh percentile in expected ERA and the bottom quartile in four other Statcast categories is far from ideal. He also ranks below the median in whiff percentage, and St. Louis makes contact at the sixth-highest rate. Plus, the Cardinals find the launch-angle sweet spot at the eighth-highest rate, which should exacerbate Burke’s tendency to give up pulled fly balls.
Cardinals at White Sox pick, best bet
Best Bet: St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (-110)
Even though the White Sox are a respectable 16-19 at home, I still like the Cardinals to win this one fairly comfortably. Gray seems more likely than Burke to bounce back from his rough start, given his lengthy track record of success and the fact that the discrepancy between his ERA and expected ERA is smaller than Burke’s. I’m not in the business of betting on the league’s worst offense.
Strong Lean: Sonny Gray O6.5 Strikeouts (+115)
Unsurprisingly, the league’s worst offense strikes out too much. Chicago has posted a 23.8% strikeout percentage, the league’s fifth-highest mark, and while Gray has gone under this total in each of the last two games, he has two double-digit strikeout performances this season. Gray is throwing his highest-ever percentage of pitches in the zone, and the White Sox make contact on in-zone pitches at the sixth-lowest rate.
