Wednesday night is another big night of baseball with plenty of Major League Baseball action under the lights. The Red Sox and Mariners start early in Seattle, but the rest of the 28 teams are scheduled to play in the evening. With 28 starting pitchers taking the mound, there are many good ways to get in on the starting pitcher prop market this Wednesday. After checking out the options and considering the matchup, environment and recent form, my top plays of the day come from Ryan Yarbrough, Chris Sale and Framber Valdez.
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Best Starting Pitcher Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Ryan Yarbrough over 4.5 strikeouts (+105)
The Yankees have gotten good work from Yarbrough since bringing him in as a free agent after the Blue Jays let him go towards the end of spring training. Yarbrough made some adjustments to his pitch mix and especially his changeup and has been very effective in his 15 games for New York.
He is 3-1 with a 3.96 ERA, 4.39 FIP and 1.18 WHIP, but those numbers are inflated after the Red Sox beat him up a little bit in each of his last two outings. He came in under this strikeout line in each of those outings against the Sox, who know him well from his extended time in the AL East. In each of his previous three outings before his two starts against Boston, he went over this strikeout line, including one game against the Angels, who he’ll face again on Wednesday.
Yarbrough had seven strikeouts in six innings in that contest, allowing just two hits in six strong innings. The lefty should have more success against the Angels on Wednesday, since they have the highest K% in the majors over the last month and for the season.
The Halos have averaged 9.9 strikeouts per game over the last two weeks and 9.75 strikeouts per game on the season. At over a strikeout per inning, Yarbrough should be able to get to at least five on Wednesday, even though he doesn’t have an overpowering fastball. His offspeed stuff has been very effective and should keep the Angels off balance in this contest.
Chris Sale over 7.5 strikeouts (+105)
Sale is another strong option to go over his strikeout prop at slightly plus money in Wednesday night’s starting pitcher prop bets. Sale has excellent for the Braves again this season, with a 2.79 ERA, 2.73 FIP and 107 strikeouts in 80 2/3 innings.
He has at least eight strikeouts in three straight starts and in seven of his last eight. During those eight starts, he has averaged 8.9 strikeouts per contest in 6.5 innings per outing. Even when he has given up runs, the strikeouts have been there for Sale.
He has yet to face his division rivals from New York this season, but when he faced them last year, he racked up nine strikeouts in 7 1/3 innings at Citi Field. Since he’ll be a Truist Park for this matchup, he has an even higher strikeout ceiling.
Unlike the Angels, the Mets have done a good job of limiting strikeouts this season, but this seems like an over-correction and a great chance to get an elite strikeout option at plus money in what should be a great divisional matchup.
Framber Valdez over 18.5 outs recorded (-105)
In another divisional game, the Astros are in Sacramento to take on the Athletics, and Valdez will look to keep rolling. I wrote about how outstanding Valdez has been lately in my top MLB DFS picks for the day and love his matchup on the road against the A’s.
Valdez has cranked up his strikeout rate lately, but even if that fades a bit and he’s reached for a few runs due to the hitter-friendly environment, he should still be able to go over this prop. There are many ways to back Framber this Wednesday, but this over 18.5 outs recorded is the one I’m including in my starting pitcher prop bets.
Valdez has been very efficient and lived up to his reputation as an innings-eater this season. In his 14 starts, he has 90 innings, for an average of 6.4 frames per start.
He went under this outs recorded line with 15 outs in his most recent start, but before that had gotten at least 19 outs in five of his previous six outings. He had a complete game against the Rays during that span and worked at least seven innings in six of his last nine starts.
The Athletics have a much better offense this season than they had last year, but they don’t typically work a ton of walks or drive pitch counts up. Valdez should be able to get to at least 6 1/3 innings against them based on how dialed in he has been for his last several starts.
