We are an immediate satisfaction society. Heck, it’s why MLB instituted the pitch clock and attempted to make games end faster. However, even with the average game time waaaaay down, if you’re looking for the quickest action on the board for baseball, it’s a NRFI (no run first inning) prop bet.
Here are my favorite spots for a NRFI bet on Wednesday night’s packed slate.
Kansas City Royals at Texas Rangers (-120)
We’ve got a battle of left-handers in Texas this evening, as Kris Bubic and the Royals visit Patrick Corbin and the Rangers. Yes, you read that correctly. I’m trusting Patrick Corbin for a NRFI prop bet in the year 2025. What a time to be alive. Really, it’s far more about Kansas City that it is about the veteran LHP. The Royals have been putrid against southpaws this season, sitting dead-last within the split in ISO (.084) and 27th in wRC+ (69). Corbin’s 3.66 ERA may be mostly a product of a career-low BABIP (.260) and a career-high strand rate (80.9%), but Kansas City won’t be the team that kick starts the 35-year-old’s regression.
Texas hasn’t been able to hit lefties in 2025, either. In fact, the Rangers are hitting .216 as a team within the split with a modest 71 wRC+. That bodes poorly in a matchup with Bubic, who has been one of the best pitchers on the planet so far this season. At least that’s what Bubic’s 1.92 ERA and a 2.55 FIP suggest. Across 13 starts, Bubic has only given up three earned runs in his first trip through the opposing team’s batting order. They don’t get him often and they almost never get him in the first.
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs (-135)
There’s rain the forecast this evening in Chicago, but if this game plays, it should be very low scoring.
Maybe I’m putting entirely too much stock into one MLB start, but did you see how dominant Jacob Misiorowski looked in his debut last week? The control issues were present, but aside from that, only a calf injury could slow the rookie RHP down, as Misiorowski tossed five no-hit innings to make his mark in the big leagues. That outing included a 98.8 mph average fastball velocity and a 16.0% swinging strike rate. Just gross stuff.
On the Cubs’ side, we find another former top prospect — just from over a decade ago. Jameson Taillon pitched terribly in his first start of 2025, but he’s been absolute nails since. Specific to his last five appearances, the 33-year-old has maintained a 1.91 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP across 33.0 innings of work. Meanwhile, the Brewers are hitting just .224 as a team in June with an underwhelming 86 wRC+. I have my doubts that this lineup will be the one to shake Taillon out of his groove.
