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MLB Best Bets: Top Home Run Props for Wednesday 6/18/25

MLB Best Bets: Top Home Run Props for Wednesday 6/18/25

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By: Garion Thorne

This is an unusual Wednesday in MLB, as there’s virtually no afternoon games taking place. It’s fine by me. Just means there will be more opportunities for home runs in the main slate.

Here are my top three bets on DraftKings Sportsbook to go deep this evening.

Top Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook

Ben Rice 1+ Home Run (+330)

The Yankees will enter tonight’s tilt having lost five straight games and having been shutout on back-to-back nights. If those trends somehow continue against Jack Kochanowicz, I’ll be floored. The contact-oriented 24-year-old has struggled immensely with left-handed bats in 2025, surrendering 11 of his 13 home runs to LHBs. In fact, lefties are averaging 2.32 home runs per nine off Kochanowicz, which equates out to a robust .530 slugging percentage. Add in the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium, and it’s really just a matter of which left-handed batter to pick. I’ll side with Rice, who leads all New York LHBs in expected wOBA versus RHPs (.422). Rice’s 97th percentile hard hit rate (55.3%) and 93rd percentile barrel rate (15.5%) aren’t too shabby, either.

Elly De La Cruz 1+ Home Run (+290)

De La Cruz was held without a hit on Tuesday, which means the former top prospect’s streak of games with a home run ended at four. I guess it’s time to begin a new streak on Wednesday. The 23-year-old is not lacking for raw power and a 92nd percentile barrel rate (15.2%) is evidence that De La Cruz is well into the process of harnessing his incredible tools at the plate. After hitting a career-high 25 long balls in 2024, De La Cruz already has 16 homers in 2025. As always, you want to be betting on De La Cruz when he’s facing a right-handed pitcher, as the shortstop possesses a .242 ISO at the MLB level as an LHB — compared to a .116 ISO against southpaws. This evening’s RHP? Bailey Ober. The Twins’ starter is an extreme fly ball pitcher, as Ober’s 0.58 GB/FB ratio is the lowest qualified mark in the league. That’s been an issue in recent weeks, with Ober surrendering seven home runs across his last three outings combined. Woof.

Ronald Acuna Jr. 1+ Home Run (+350)

No one in the Braves’ lineup has seen all that much of Paul Blackburn aside from Alex Verdugo, but I’m not going to let that stop me from picking on the veteran right-hander. The fact of the matter is this: Blackburn would be nowhere near the Mets’ rotation if not for recent injuries to Kodai Senga (hamstring) and Tylor Megill (elbow). To that point, in his most recent appearance out of the bullpen, Blackburn faced just five opposing batters, yet still conceded four hits and four earned runs. Across 14 starts in 2024, Blackburn also allowed opposing RHBs to smash 2.10 home runs per nine. That’s where Acuna Jr. comes into the picture. Acuna’s been his usual self since returning from the IL. Honestly, he’s been better than his usual self, posting a .696 slugging percentage and 1.191 OPS in 95 plate appearances. He’s always a threat to go yard.

Garion is a Toronto-based writer who has been playing fantasy sports since elementary school. With a particular affinity for advanced statistics and sabermetrics, he’s been covering DFS Baseball, Football and Basketball for DraftKings dating back to 2018. Prior to that, Garion’s work could be found at FNTSY, SportsGrid, HoopsHype, The New York Daily News and Sportsnet.ca. Still, he is a Dolphins fan, so his decision-making can be questioned from time-to-time.
Disclaimer

All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.