These teams have played five games against each other. The adjustments to the adjustments to the adjustments have been made. They are intimately familiar with the nuances of every player. There should be few surprises.
Yet, the Thunder were still able to overwhelm the Pacers offense in Game 5, forcing 23 turnovers and scoring 32 points off those miscues. Not having a healthy Tyrese Haliburton was a huge part of that. And that is the main question heading into Game 6.
Haliburton tweaked his right ankle in Game 2. Then he suffered a calf strain in Game 4.
His status is of monumental importance because, even if he’s not at full strength, his mere presence on the court alters the geometry of the Thunder defense.
DraftKings Sportsbook has OKC as 6.5-point favorites over IND on the road with the total at 221.5.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $750K Finals Shootaround [$200K to 1st, 3PT Throne Eligible] (OKC at IND)
Captain’s Picks
Bennedict Mathurin ($5,400 CP): Mathurin is always a tough click because he doesn’t do much outside of score, and even that is very volatile. In Game 5, he shot 2-of-11 from the field. To his credit, though, he did grab eight rebounds and block two shots in 22 minutes. We saw the ceiling in Game 3 when he put up 36 FPTS in 22 minutes, shooting 9-of-12 from the field. With this game in Indiana, I think there’s a good chance Mathurin performs well. During the regular season, the home/road splits were stark, as he shot 48% from the field at home but only 43% on the road. With Haliburton hobbled, Mathurin’s offense may be sorely needed. There is also the chance that Haliburton doesn’t play. In that scenario, Mathurin could enter the starting lineup. During the regular season, Haliburton missed nine games. Mathurin started six of those, putting up 31, 11, 31.75, 35.25, 57.5 and 36.5 FPTS. He was a DNP in two games and came off the bench in the other. He went for 52 FPTS in 40 minutes in that one. There is risk here for sure, but Mathurin is cheap, should be low-owned and he allows a robust UTIL lineup.
UTIL Plays
Pascal Siakam ($10,200): After putting up 39.5 and 33.25 FPTS in the first two games of the series, Siakam has responded with 40.5, 50 and 51.5 FPTS. The Pacers have been more conscious of feeding him the ball because he has been most effective in breaking down the Thunder’s defense. Siakam is able to abuse switches and can be fed down low on the block. He’s too big for smaller defenders and too agile for the bigs. With Haliburton hobbled, Siakam should garner the most usage and he’s also been stuffing the stat sheet with rebounds, dimes and defensive stats. I think another 50-burger is likely.
Obi Toppin ($5,600): Toppin has had one bad game, and that was Game 2 when he shot 1-of-8 from the field and received 19 minutes. He’s shot well in every other game and done yeoman’s work on the glass. He’s a beast in transition and I think he gets a few dunks as I expect the Pacers to play at a frantic pace on Thursday. Now, the defense isn’t great but Myles Turner doesn’t look 100%. There’s a chance Toppin gets a little more run as a result.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($14,200): SGA has the highest floor/ceiling combo on the slate. He literally stuffs the stat sheet on a nightly basis. The usage rate is always going to be high because he’s the alpha of the Thunder offense. In this series, he’s put up at least 43 FPTS in every game with two over 60 FPTS.
Fades
Myles Turner ($6,200): Turner had an illness ahead of Game 4. He played 30 minutes in that one but shot 3-of-10 from the field with no defensive stats. In Game 5, which was three days later, Turner played 25 minutes, shot 3-of-5 from the field and racked up one steal. He just didn’t look right moving around and wasn’t too aggressive on offense. The ceiling isn’t particularly high for Turner anyway, as he’s eclipsed 30 FPTS just once in this series.
THE OUTCOME
If Haliburton was healthy, I’d be backing Indiana at home. But he’s not and Turner hasn’t looked right himself. I do think Siakam and Mathurin step up and have good games, but in the end, Siakam will likely get worn down by the Thunder pressure at both ends of the court.
Final Score: Thunder 113, Pacers 105
