Well that was fun. Unless you had some cash on the Diamondbacks moneyline last night.
Down 4-3 heading to the bottom of the ninth inning, the Blue Jays came storming back to avoid their fourth straight loss, as Bo Bichette and Addison Barger went back-to-back to win the game. For Barger, it was his second-career walk-off home run, despite the fact that the 25-year-old only has 15 total long balls at the MLB level. Clutch gene? I guess we’ll see in the future.
In Arizona’s dugout, it was a result that has become far too commonplace. The Diamondbacks have struggled with bullpen inconsistency and injury all season long and, as you might expect, that’s led to a whole lot of blown leads.
Can Arizona get back on track this evening? Let’s preview this interleague matchup with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Diamondbacks vs. Blue Jays prediction, preview
It was a roster move that was likely overlooked due to last night’s heroics, but Toronto picked a definitive path with its rotation on Tuesday afternoon, placing spiralling starter Bowden Francis on the 15-day IL; a designation that will surely see the RHP head back to the drawing board in the midst of an ugly campaign. With Francis now away from the team, Eric Lauer has seemingly stepped into a full-time rotation spot, even with Max Scherzer likely to re-join the big league squad next week. It’s not the largest sample in the world, but Lauer’s earned this chance.
Across nine appearances and 30.1 innings with the Jays this season, Lauer is in possession of a 2.37 ERA and a 3.26 xERA. His fastball velocity has not returned to where it was sitting in 2022, when the left-hander registered a 3.69 ERA over 29 starts with the Brewers, but Lauer’s strikeout rate (23.7%) and walk rate (8.5%) are back at the levels we saw when he was a reliable MLB starting pitcher. However, Lauer is also rocking completely unstable marks in both opponent BABIP (.189) and strand rate (90.2%). The question is, when these rates normalize, is Lauer a pitcher with an ERA in the low 4.00 range or the high 6.00 range — as we saw in a nightmarish 2023.
If there is one thing working in Lauer’s favor on Wednesday, it’s that he’s left-handed. While the Diamondbacks crushed LHPs last season, 2025 has been a much different story, primarily due to regression from Ketel Marte and Randal Grichuk. The loss of Christian Walker isn’t helping, either. Arizona owns just a 91 wRC+ and .137 ISO within the split. For comparison, the Diamondbacks’ .351 wOBA against RHPs is tied for the highest mark in baseball with the Dodgers.
A lefty will also be taking the mound for Arizona this evening. Eduardo Rodriguez has certainly had his problems in 2025, as the veteran southpaw enters tonight’s tilt sporting a ghastly 6.27 ERA. Are Rodriguez’s ERA estimators far more digestible? Yes. Still, the 32-year-old has an ERA above 8.00 in his last six starts and he’s allowed opponents to register a massive .421 wOBA in that span of time. At some point, it gets difficult to trust a guy, even if his xERA says better days are on the horizon.
Diamondbacks vs. Blue Jays pick, best bet
Best Bet: Over 9 (-115)
Toronto has hit the over in 55.7% of its games — the highest mark in the AL. Add in two iffy starters and an Arizona bullpen that ranks 27th in ERA (5.24), and it think we get there again on Wednesday.
Strong Lean: Ernie Clement 2+ Total Bases (+120)
Clement ranks third among qualified hitters in wRC+ against LHPs this season, trailing only Aaron Judge and Paul Goldschmidt.
