The reigning champion Los Angeles Dodgers are in the midst of a pivotal 10-game stretch, in which they face their top rivals for the NL West title, the San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants. The stretch has gotten off to an excellent start, as the Dodgers have won five of the first seven games, with another three against the Padres still to come.
Tonight’s game will start at 10:10 p.m. ET, with San Diego starting Randy Vásquez and Los Angeles having Jack Dreyer open ahead of Matt Sauer, although the Dodgers haven’t officially named any pitching probables.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Padres at Dodgers prediction, preview
The story of the series so far has been Shohei Ohtani’s return to pitching, as he opened ahead of Ben Casparius in last night’s series opener, tossing one inning and giving up two hits and a run before exiting as a pitcher and driving in two runs as a hitter. Los Angeles ended up winning, 6-3, behind the strength of a five-run fourth inning. The only Dodgers starter who went hitless was, unsurprisingly, Michael Conforto, who is hitting .170 and hasn’t been over the Mendoza Line since April 19. Max Muncy, below the Mendoza Line as recently as May 14, continued his hot form and is slashing .318/.450/.588 over his last 28 games.
The issue is that Los Angeles’ bullpen is extremely depleted because it needed six different pitchers just to finish the final eight innings after Ohtani’s departure, and with a bullpen game scheduled for today and Emmet Sheehan, who’s never pitched more than six innings and is coming off a 13-month absence after undergoing Tommy John surgery, to crest the hill tomorrow, the Dodgers could be in trouble. Los Angeles is desperately in need of volume both from Dreyer, who’s pitched to a 2.78 ERA across 35.2 innings this season, and Sauer, who gave up 13 hits and nine earned runs in just 4.2 innings of work against San Diego last Tuesday, although his torturous outing lasted 111 pitches. The Dodgers can only hope he throws 100 pitches again and is at least slightly more effective this time, lest Kiké Hernández have to come in again.
This game will probably put a fairly heavy load on the Padres’ bullpen, too. Vásquez has not thrown 100 pitches all season and has only lasted into the seventh inning once, and while his 3.57 ERA is impressive, his 5.35 fielder-independent pitching figure is not. The 26-year-old Dominican has some tools — namely, a high-spinning fastball and curveball and an ability to avoid hard hits — but he’s posted an expected slugging percentage of .500 or worse on five of his six pitches, which…isn’t great. Vásquez has struggled mightily with his control this season, with just a 13th-percentile chase rate and an 11th-percentile walk rate, and Los Angeles is amongst the most patient teams in baseball. The good news for San Diego is that it has the league’s fourth-best bullpen, while the Dodgers’ is below average.
Padres at Dodgers pick, best bet
Best Bet: San Diego Padres Moneyline (+181)
While I don’t think Vásquez is a particularly good pitcher, and I have my concerns about the Padres’ offense — Fernando Tatís Jr., once an MVP candidate, is hitting just .240 over his last 33 games — Los Angeles’ pitching staff is incredibly beat up, and I don’t have faith in Sauer. The Dodgers are playing the long game, and if Sauer gives up nine runs again, so be it.
Strong Lean: Max Muncy (LAD) 2+ Hits + Runs + RBI’s (-115)
I’ve already laid out Muncy’s stats across the last month, and given that he hits in the middle of Los Angeles’ absurdly stacked order, he should have plenty of opportunities with men on base. He’s hit that number in six of his last eight starts, and he’s also posted a .912 OPS against right-handed pitchers this season.
