Tonight’s game between the Phoenix Mercury and the Connecticut Sun has a big storyline at play. And the Connecticut Sun probably aren’t too happy about it.
Connecticut had a tumultuous offseason, nearly turning over the entire roster. Most notably, that meant Alyssa Thomas going to Phoenix. After 11 seasons, the five-time All-Star left for greener pastures. This will be her first game back in Connecticut, and emotions will run high.
Phoenix will have to keep those emotions in check. This should be an easy win against a 2-9 Sun squad. Letting the gravity of the moment take their focus away could cost them an easy win.
The Mercury are 13-point favorites on the road and are -1100 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is set at 156.5 points. Let’s look at the best bets and predictions for this contest.
Mercury vs. Sun Prediction
As double-digit favorites on the road, there’s little reason to think the Mercury will lose this game. Phoenix is 8-4 despite injuries to Thomas and Kahleah Copper. The Mercury are the clear-cut second-best team in the Western Conference if healthy.
Like I said before, the emotions surrounding Thomas is the only thing standing in the way. If Phoenix keeps its cool, it should be able to coast to victory. That would have Thomas sleeping well tomorrow night.
Mercury vs. Sun Pick
Phoenix Mercury First Half -8.5 (-110)
I do expect this one to get out of control early. With Phoenix’s lockdown defense and Connecticut’s lack of offensive options, it’s a great matchup for the Mercury. Thomas and rising star Satou Sabally should be able to create plenty of offense against this struggling defense.
I’m taking the first half line because I worry about this one slipping in the second half. With Phoenix still nursing injuries and being short in the rotation, it’s possible that the Sun find a way to get it close to single digits by the end. So I’m hedging my bets against that potential comeback by taking the first half line.
