This is the second matchup of a four-game series in Miami between the Marlins and visiting Philadelphia Phillies.
Jesus Luzardo is scheduled to pitch for Philadelphia while Cal Quantrill should get the nod for Miami.
Phillies at Marlins prediction, preview
Jesus Luzardo has risen after struggling last season. He posted a 4.26 FIP and only pitched 66.2 innings due to injury. In 78.2 innings this season, the fastball is averaging one more mph than last season at 96.5 mph and the strikeout rate is back up to 27.6%. The walks have been under control and he’s only allowed six home runs. The 4.23 ERA doesn’t look great, but the 2.65 FIP is yummy while the BABIP is an elevated .376.
Left-handed batters have had almost no chance against Luzardo while righties have teed off him, slashing .304/.363/.447 while hitting all six home runs allowed. Luzardo has been site neutral this season.
In the first 11 starts, Luzardo was great, allowing three or fewer earned runs in all. There was a blip in the matrix three starts ago when he allowed 12 earned runs in 3.1 innings, then followed that up with eight earned runs allowed in 2.1 innings against the Brewers and Blue Jays. Luzardo righted the ship against the Cubs last start, striking out 10 in six innings while allowing only one earned run. Luzardo faced Miami back in late April, going seven innings, striking out seven and allowing only one earned run. That game was in Philadelphia.
Against left-handed pitching, the Marlins have struck out at the 24th-highest rate while having the 24th-best ISO. The wOBA is 14th-best in MLB.
Cal Quantrill hasn’t had a strikeout rate over 20% since 2020. This season, he’s at 18% with a K-BB% of 10.6%. The swinging strike rate is only 9.2% and the fastball is averaging 93.3 mph. The FIP of 4.34 is better than the 5.61 ERA while the BABIP is .344, but Quantrill is uninspiring.
Quantrill has reverse splits as right-handed batters have seen more success against him. The strikeout rate is only 11.8% compared to 25.2% against lefties. The FIP is 5.41 vs. 3.33 and six of the eight home runs allowed have come off the bat of righties. Quantrill has been worse on the road, but he hasn’t been great at home.
In four of his first six starts this season, Quantrill allowed at least four earned runs, which included a six and a seven earned run game. Since then, he’s allowed three earned runs or fewer in seven straight starts with only two of those at three earned runs. Quantrill has not pitched six innings in any contest this season.
The Phillies have struck out at the 25th-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being 20th in ISO. The wOBA is 11th-best.
As for bullpens, Philadelphia has the 20th-lowest FIP while Miami has the 24th-lowest.
Phillies at Marlins Best Bet
I like Luzardo to continue dominating, but I expect Quantrill to continue limiting the damage.
