As per usual on Tuesday, we’ve got a massive 15-game MLB slate. That means literally thousands of possible baseball bets and picks are available tonight on DraftKings Sportsbook. Allow me to narrow that down.
Here are my two MLB best bets for this evening’s action on the diamond.
St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago White Sox
White Sox ML (+122)
While the White Sox are still a bad team — they’ve lost five in a row heading into tonight’s tilt — they are far from the historically awful team that lost 121 games in 2024. One of the major reasons for that has been Rule 5 pick Shane Smith, who is well on his way to an All-Star appearance next month. Smith’s ERA estimators are slightly more conservative about the rookie RHP, but across 13 starts and 68.1 innings, Smith owns a sterling 2.37 ERA. Among the 107 pitchers that have thrown at least 60 innings this season, it’s the 12th-lowest mark. Heck, Smith sports a 2.15 ERA and a 3.22 FIP dating back to April 24, a span of time where the 25-year-old also possesses a 25.0% strikeout rate. Smith’s legit, and the fact that he’s yet to surrender more than three earned runs in an outing means he’s kept Chicago in every game that he’s appeared. Expect that to continue tonight.
Then there’s Matthew Liberatore. The former first-round pick began the season wonderfully for the Cardinals, but things have been a little hairy as of late. Liberatore has experienced some “dead arm” and that lines up with the stats. In his past three starts, the left-hander has allowed 24 hits and 16 earned runs in only 14.0 innings of work. The White Sox should be able to get to Liberatore early and get Smith a lead. Either way, they’re worth a look at plus-money as home dogs, as the team is a decent 16-18 in Chicago so far in 2025. For context, the White Sox are 7-31 on the road. That’s fewer away victories than the Rockies.
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
Padres ML (+181)
Editors’s Note: Dodgers RP Jack Dreyer will start tonight’s game vs. the Padres.
This is a situation where the devil you know is slightly more appealing than the one you don’t. The Dodgers haven’t listed a starter yet for tonight’s tilt against the Padres, but the educated guess is that Matt Sauer is going to be heavily involved. Really, it’s just numbers game. With Shohei Ohtani essentially opening for Ben Casparius on Monday, Los Angeles’ long man in the bullpen is off the table after throwing 62 pitches. Actually, a lot of people seem like they’ll be off limits to the Dodgers on Tuesday, as Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates and Alex Vesia have all worked back-to-back days. For those unaware, that’s the entire back end of Los Angeles’ bullpen.
We’ve seen Dave Roberts simply punt a game before. You don’t even have to go back all that far. Exactly one week ago, Sauer was thrown to the wolves as a bulk guy, surrendering 13 hits and nine earned runs to this same San Diego lineup. Kiké Hernandez threw 2.1 innings that night! That’s how little the Dodgers cared.
Again, this isn’t an endorsement of what the Padres are taking the mound with. Randy Vasquez is the poster child for oncoming regression, as the RHP compliments his 3.57 ERA with a nasty 5.91 xERA. At the same time, Vasquez threw 4.2 solid innings against Los Angeles last week and he’s an actual MLB starter. I think it’s fair to say I trust him more than Sauer — or, likely, Hernandez. In no world should the usually mighty Dodgers be this heavily favored. Not with the state of their pitching staff.
