Tonight’s matchup at Nationals Park brings the Rockies, the worst team in baseball, into the fray against the Nationals, who have been struggling themselves but still hold a distinct edge. Despite Washington’s eight-game losing streak, they have a massive pitching advantage and a more capable offense in this one. Jake Irvin takes the mound for the Nats, and while his 4.21 ERA isn’t dominant, he’s been a steady presence in the rotation, especially at home, where he boasts a solid 3.46 ERA. Colorado’s Carson Palmquist, meanwhile, has been a mess. With a 7.77 ERA and a 1.82 WHIP in 22 innings, Palmquist has yet to show he belongs at the MLB level. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Monday night baseball game between the Nationals and the Rockies.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Rockies vs. Nationals prediction, preview
Irvin’s control is key here. With a 2.2:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, he has the ability to limit damage, especially against a Rockies lineup that strikes out 9.64 times per game (5th most in MLB). On the other hand, Palmquist has been walking batters at a horrific rate—13 walks to just 16 strikeouts—and allowing a .310 opponent average. Colorado’s lack of patience at the plate plays right into Irvin’s strengths, giving him an excellent chance to rack up strikeouts while keeping baserunners to a minimum.
Offensively, Washington has been cold, but the Rockies are even colder. The Nationals, while underperforming, still have more pop in their lineup. James Wood (17 home runs, .538 slugging percentage) and CJ Abrams (.274/.340/.473) have been bright spots for Washington. Wood, especially, has been a standout against left-handed pitchers, slugging .622 against them this season. With Palmquist on the mound—who has allowed 2.05 HR/9 in his brief MLB career—this is a prime opportunity for Wood to continue his power surge. Additionally, Washington has a significantly better wRC+ (106) against left-handed pitchers compared to Colorado’s 89 wRC+ against right-handers.
The Rockies, meanwhile, are a mess on offense. They rank 29th in MLB in runs per game (3.3) and are dead last in batting average (.224). Beyond Hunter Goodman (.284/.332/.504, 11 home runs) and Ryan McMahon (.221, 10 home runs), the rest of the lineup has been largely ineffective. McMahon has a solid .409 average over his last seven games, but his overall numbers against righties are underwhelming. The Rockies strike out at an alarming rate and fail to make consistent contact, which spells trouble against Irvin.
Washington’s bullpen, though shaky, is in a much better spot than Colorado’s. With Kyle Finnegan, one of the most underrated closers in the game (18 saves, thirdrd in MLB), Washington has a much stronger backend to protect any lead. Colorado’s bullpen has been an absolute disaster, sitting at a 5.12 ERA and relying on a “closer by committee” approach that has yielded just nine saves.
Nationals vs. Rockies pick, best bet
Looking at the betting trends, the Nationals are 4-1 SU in their last five home games against Colorado and have historically handled the Rockies at Nationals Park. The Rockies are an abysmal 7-30 on the road and 1-4 in their last five games in Washington. These trends align with a much stronger pitching performance from Irvin, who also boasts better numbers at home. Meanwhile, Palmquist’s struggles have been well-documented, and the Rockies’ road woes only add to their odds of another blowout loss.
The under, sitting at 9.0 runs, is the logical pick here. Washington’s offensive slump means they’ll likely struggle to hit the over, but with Palmquist on the mound and Colorado’s offense being one of the worst in baseball, it’s hard to envision a high-scoring affair. The lack of wind and a mild forecast shouldn’t play much of a role, but with Irvin holding down Colorado’s offense and Washington likely winning by multiple runs, this total feels too high.
The under makes the most sense given both teams’ recent form and the stark pitching disparity. Washington’s offense may be cold, but against Palmquist, they should do enough to win this comfortably while Irvin locks down Colorado.
Best bet: Nationals vs. Rockies u9.0 runs (-120)
Bounceback night for Jake Irvin—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
