Though it’s not technically an elimination game, the NBA Finals between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers effectively comes down to this. With the series tied 2-2 and Game 5 to be played in Oklahoma City tonight, it’s exceptionally likely that the winner of tonight’s game will go on to claim the series. Of the 31 Finals that have been tied 2-2, 23 have been won by the victor of Game 5.
Odds imply that that team will be the Thunder, who are 9.5-point favorites (-425 Moneyline), with the point total set to 225. Oklahoma City must be brimming with confidence after holding off the Pacers with a fourth-quarter charge in Game 4. I’ve built my favorite same game parlay to help set the stage for tonight.
Best Same Game Parlay for Thunder at Pacers Game 5
Oklahoma City Thunder-Indiana Pacers U224.5 Points
“Defense wins championships” will certainly be the story of the day if the Thunder, who had the best defensive rating since the 2019-20 Milwaukee Bucks, end up lifting the Larry O’Brien Trophy. But it’ll also be somewhat true if Indiana wins; even though the Pacers only had the league’s 14th-best defense during the regular season and the ninth-best so far these playoffs, their intensity and hustle have presented Oklahoma City with plenty of challenges. Three of the four games so far have gone under the point total, and both teams are shooting below their regular-season averages both from the field and from deep while coughing away significantly more turnovers.
So far these playoffs, the Thunder have been a much better defensive team at home than on the road. They’ve conceded 99.3 points per 100 possessions in their 11 home games and 113.5 points per 100 possessions in their nine road games, a bigger chasm than that between Oklahoma City’s league-leading regular-season defense and the league-worst Utah Jazz. Indiana sees a slight defensive slippage on the road, but its margin is nowhere near the Thunder’s — a difference of 4.4 points per 100 possessions. Oklahoma City’s offense has surged at home by nearly 12 points per 100 possessions so far these playoffs, while the Pacers’ has remained constant on the road, so while this game might be slightly higher-scoring, it won’t be enough to bring it over 224.5 points.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 3+ Points in the 1st 3 Minutes
The MVP was the primary reason that his team won Game 4, as he dropped 15 points in the fourth quarter alone, making three of his six shots and all eight of his free throws and adding a steal and a block as the Thunder won the frame, 31-17, en route to a seven-point victory. Gilgeous-Alexander will need to pick up right where he left off as soon as the ball tips in Game 5, something that he’s done for most of the season; among 70 players with 50 or more total first-quarter minutes this postseason, Gilgeous-Alexander ranks ninth in usage rate and fourth in scoring after ranking second and first in those categories, respectively, in the regular season (minimum 65 games played).
He actually has only scored three or more points in the first three minutes once these playoffs, but fittingly enough, that instance came in Game 5 of the conference semifinals against the Denver Nuggets, a series that played out remarkably similarly to the Finals in the first four games. The difference is that Denver had proven itself more capable of slowing down Gilgeous-Alexander in the first four games of that series, while he has been remarkable on offense in the Finals so far. If Gilgeous-Alexander feels inclined to send a message early in this pivotal Game 5, he’s well-suited to do it.
Pascal Siakam 1+ Blocks
Siakam was a defensive menace in Game 4, recording a playoff career-high five steals — four of which came in the first quarter — and adding a block. With his second-quarter rejection of Gilgeous-Alexander’s layup, he’s now recorded at least one block in each of his last five games, tied for the sixth-longest streak of his career. He’s somewhat likely to sustain that for at least another game; Oklahoma City has been the league’s fifth-most blocked team so far these playoffs after finishing near the middle of the pack in that stat in the regular season, and Siakam also recorded a block in one of the team’s two regular-season matchups.
Then, there’s also the matter of Siakam’s defensive assignments. So far this series, his five most frequent assignments have been Alex Caruso, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, and Gilgeous-Alexander. Of those five, Caruso and Dort are infrequently rejected, but of the 41 players who have appeared in at least 10 playoff games this season and average more than 20 minutes per game, Williams ranks fourth, Holmgren seventh, and Gilgeous-Alexander eighth, with each being blocked at least 1.3 times per game. Given Siakam’s role in help defense, he should continue to be in position to rack up blocks.
