Entering tonight’s pivotal Game 5 in the NBA Finals, both the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers surely know the stakes. Among Finals series that have been tied 2-2, the winner of Game 5 has gone on to lift the Larry O’Brien trophy 74.2% of the time. If Game 3 was a must-win game for Indiana and Game 4 for Oklahoma City, tonight is pivotal for both squads.
The stakes are high for tonight’s fantasy contest too, as the featured DFS Showdown contest offers $800,000 in prizes. Winning the contest will require shrewd picks from the top of the lineup to the bottom, so I’ll break down some budget options who could have good value tonight.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $800K Finals Shootaround [$200K to 1st, 3PT Throne Eligible] (IND @ OKC).
SG/SF Luguentz Dort, Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers, $4,600
Dort’s role in the offense is inconsistent — in Game 4, he attempted just two shots, making both (11.75 FPTS) — but because of his all-world defense, he plays the most minutes of anybody at his price point. I also considered Isaiah Hartenstein ($5,000), who moved back into Oklahoma City’s starting lineup prior to Game 4 at the expense of Cason Wallace ($3,400), but his minutes didn’t really increase. Dort’s scoring upside is slightly higher, as he’s recorded two double-digit scoring outbursts in this series to Hartenstein’s zero. He also more consistently gets steals/blocks, as evidenced by his two-block, four-steal (36.0-FPT) performance in Game 1.
The Canadian’s offensive upside, more than anything, hinges on his willingness to shoot. The Pacers have mostly ignored him all series, and 43.5% of his field-goal attempts have been wide-open triples, which he has canned at a 50% clip, with a further 43.5% of his shots coming with the nearest defender between four and six feet away. I’m not expecting him to start firing away with reckless abandon, even though he was a 41.2% three-point shooter during the regular season, but even the Minnesota Timberwolves in the conference finals respected Dort’s shot more than Indiana has. Like he did in Games 1 and 3, he’s liable to make the Pacers pay.
PG T.J. McConnell, Indiana Pacers at Oklahoma City Thunder, $4,200
McConnell almost single-handedly won Game 3 for Indiana, given that he was a plus-12 in a game that the Pacers ended up winning by nine. In that game, he became the first bench player in NBA history to score 10 points, dish out five assists, and record five steals in a single Finals game. He wasn’t quite as active defensively in Game 4, finishing with eight points, one rebound, and two assists (11.75 FPTS), but it’s clear that the 33-year-old has become a series X-factor. Fittingly, the player he’s guarded most these Finals has been Alex Caruso ($6,800), whose energy and hustle off the bench has made him arguably the Thunder’s most dangerous asset.
On offense, McConnell has taken on a bigger role in this series than he did in the Eastern Conference Finals against the New York Knicks. He has attempted between six and eight shots in every game so far after having five or fewer in three of the six games last series, and he’s been quite efficient, draining 15 of his 28 field goal attempts and two of his three triples. The Arizona product can score at all three levels, making nearly a shot per game in the restricted area, from floater range, and from the midrange and making seven of his 17 triples throughout the playoffs. Indiana’s bench has had the third-highest assist percentage and the second-highest effective field goal percentage so far these playoffs, which is a testament to McConnell’s steady hand.
