Andrew Nembhard and the Indiana Pacers entered the fourth quarter of Game 4 with a seven-point lead along with a chance to take full control of the NBA Finals. But the Oklahoma City Thunder came storming back, outscoring the Pacers 31-17 in the final period to even the series at two wins apiece.
While it is difficult not to view this as a massive missed opportunity from Indiana’s perspective, they do not have time to feel bad for themselves as the series travels back to Oklahoma City tonight. The NBA Finals are down to a best-of-three matchup, and the team that goes on to win Game 5 in this situation has been crowned the champion 74% of the time.
Looking at the Game 5 odds, the Thunder enter as 9.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook and hold -410 odds on the Moneyline. The Pacers hold +320 odds of getting the outright victory with the game total set at 224.5.
With the stage set, here are my favorite Andrew Nembhard prop bets for the Game 5 matchup.
Best Andrew Nembhard Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Andrew Nembhard’s props are listed at over/under 10.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.5 made three-pointers, and 18.5 combined points, rebounds and assists.
Andrew Nembhard Over 7.5 Assists + Rebounds (-105)
While Tyrese Haliburton headlines the guard production of this Pacers team, Andrew Nembhard has proven an invaluable part of this roster and is comfortable scaling up his game in a postseason setting. Across the regular season, the 25-year-old averaged 10.0 points, 5.0 assists, and 3.3 rebounds per game while shooting a career-worst 29.1% from beyond the three-point arc. During the 20 postseason games Indiana has played thus far, he is averaging 12.4 points, 4.7 assists, and 3.3 rebounds per game. Nembhard’s shooting touch has returned with him knocking down 46.1% of his three-point looks.
Nembhard has seen his on-ball role scaled up for stretches with Indiana intentionally shifting Haliburton off-ball in an effort to create easier looks. Oklahoma City’s bothersome perimeter defense has made an impact, but the Pacers have still had more success playing at their pace than most teams do when facing this Thunder squad. Across the opening four games of this series, Nembhard averages 10.8 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 3.3 assists.
Despite these numbers, Nembhard has tallied over 7.5 combined assists and rebounds in two of four games in this series and 11 of 20 postseason games overall. This is a crucial matchup and Nembhard has not blinked at the moment in his postseason career. Indiana has also struggled to rebound the basketball all season and is coming off a Game 4 in which they were outrebounded 43-33. Myles Turner has been especially disappointing in this area and is coming off back-to-back games with just two rebounds.
Nembhard has a knack for doing whatever the team needs, so expect this to involve rebounding tonight. He has tallied as many as seven rebounds in a game during these playoffs. The 6-foot-5 guard also has stepped up as a playmaker and tallied as many as 13 assists in a game this postseason. Expect him to feel the weight of the moment in this crucial Game 5 and impact the game in a variety of ways. I am backing Nembhard to tally over 7.5 combined assists and rebounds for the third time in this series and 12th time across this playoff run.
Andrew Nembhard Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (+145)
The 29.1% Nembhard shot from beyond the three-point arc this season was uncharacteristic. He shot 35.7% from the perimeter last year and 35.0% in his rookie season on fairly similar volume across all three years. Even looking back at his college stats, he never shot worse than 30.8% from long-range and shot 38.3% from beyond the arc in his final season before turning pro.
He has wiped away the regular-season struggles in this playoff run by connecting on 46.1% of his perimeter shots so far. This also marks back-to-back seasons in which his perimeter efficiency has improved in the postseason. Nembhard shot 48.3% on three-point attempts in the playoffs last year..
After recording over 1.5 made three-pointers in just 13 of 65 regular season games, he has cleared this margin in 11 of 20 postseason games. This includes two of four games in this series, and he has made at least one three-pointer in all four games. Nembhard’s self-creation ability has been called on in this matchup when Haliburton has struggled to create separation.
The 25-year-old has played with extreme confidence and will continue to do so tonight. Getting +145 odds for something he has hit in more than half the playoff games is great value. Nembhard has stepped up in some big moments for this Pacers team already, and I am backing him to knock down at least a pair of three-pointers in this critical matchup.
