Things are pretty good for New York sports teams that wear blue and orange. Not only did the New York Knicks make the conference finals for the first time in 25 years, the New York Mets have the best record in the National League. Even after surprisingly dropping the first two games of their weekend series against the Tampa Bay Rays, the Mets have by far the best pitching staff in baseball, posting a 2.82 ERA.
Griffin Canning will crest the hill for New York in the series finale at 1:35 p.m. ET, with Shane Baz set to pitch for Tampa Bay.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rays at Mets prediction, preview
The Rays have been on an extended hot streak for the last month, winning 17 of their last 23 games. In large part, Tampa Bay’s recent charge has been driven by the solid hitting of third-year pro Junior Caminero, who won AL co-Player of the Week on May 31 after slashing .419/.419/1.000 in the preceding week. Though he’s slowed down significantly since then, posting just a .583 OPS through the first 11 games of June, the 23-year-old Dominican is still a dangerous presence in the middle of the Rays’ lineup. Jonathan Aranda ranks second in the American League in on-base percentage (first in the non-Aaron Judge category), and Brandon Lowe has slashed .293/.333/.512.
It’s good that Tampa Bay’s offense has been in such hot form, because the man that it’ll send to the mound — Shane Baz — hasn’t been. Baz has conceded three or more runs in seven of his last eight starts and hasn’t lasted more than six innings since the end of April. The 25-year-old amassed 2.2 WAR in just 79.1 innings pitched last season, but he has a negative WAR figure so far in 2025 and ranks fifth in the AL in homers conceded. His breaking pitches, in particular, have been mashed; though he’s only thrown his slider 83 times this season, opposing hitters have posted an eye-popping 1.286 slugging percentage against the pitch. Pete Alonso, who’s significantly improved against breaking balls and has a .340/.446/.809 slash line in June, must be salivating.
Canning had a rough go of it in his last start, conceding four runs on seven hits in 5.1 innings and seeing his ERA rise from 2.90 to 3.22, and given that his FIP figure of 4.10 is much higher than his ERA, it’s possible that he’ll put up another rough outing, especially since this has already been easily the best season of his career. His Statcast metrics aren’t great, as he ranks below the median in 11 of the 13 Statcast categories, and he ranks in just the 12th percentile in hard-hit percentage and average exit velocity. He’s also posted a significantly worse ERA in home games than on the road, giving up three or more runs in each of his last three home games.
Rays at Mets pick, best bet
Best Bet: Over 8 Runs (-108)
With both teams’ offenses heating up and each of the series’ first two games having 12 runs, I would be shocked if the over doesn’t hit here. Both teams have excellent bullpens — they rank second and third in ERA, respectively — but neither Baz nor Canning is an incredible pitcher. Conditions should be dry tomorrow, so they should be conducive to offense.
Strong Lean: Pete Alonso 1+ Home Runs (+280)
Alonso can absolutely rake, ranking in the top decile in every single power-related metric except for squared-up percentage. Since ending a career-long homer-less drought on May 25, he’s hit eight long balls in his last 18 games. Baz has given up nine homers to righties this season.
