On Sunday afternoon, the Diamondbacks host the Padres in the third game of their NL West series. Arizona has won the first five games of its current homestand, sweeping the Mariners and taking the first two games from the Padres. The Dbacks are 36-34 after the two wins while dropping the Padres to 38-31. Both teams trail the Giants and Dodgers but are within six games of the division lead in what should be a great race the rest of the year.
The Diamondbacks are the home favorites at -143 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The run total is set at 8.5.
Let’s take a closer look at what to expect from Padres vs. Diamondbacks on Sunday afternoon in the final game of their weekend series.
Padres vs. Diamondbacks prediction, preview
Their comeback win on Saturday night moved the Dbacks to over .500 for the first time since May 23. They trailed 7-3 going into the ninth inning before scoring five runs to get the win, including this game-tying triple from Gerlado Peromo.
Arizona will give the ball to veteran righty Merrill Kelly on Sunday afternoon, looking to get the sweep. Kelly has gone an impressive 6-2 in his 14 starts with a 3.18 ERA, 3.22 FIP and 0.99 WHIP. He has only 21 walks and 60 hits allowed in his 82 innings, while striking out 79.
He’ll be opposed by Nick Pivetta, who is also 6-2 on the season in his 13 starts with a 3.48 ERA, 3.24 FIP and 1.11 WHIP. He has the same number of strikeouts as Kelly, with 79, but has thrown fewer innings at 72 1/3 after 12 outings.
Both veteran righty pitchers typically do a good job limiting damage and will be facing their opponent for the first time this season. While the teams had 15 runs on Saturday night, eight of those come in the ninth inning, and with these two effective starters, there’s no guarantee that this game will go over the 8.5 run total.
It should be a very close game, though, and one of the most dramatic options in the late afternoon. After the bullpen blew up on them last night, the Padres will be desperate to get back in the win column after dropping three straight and four of their last five.
Padres vs. Diamondbacks pick, best bet
Since I do think this game will be close and could go either way very easily, I’m making my pick and best bet from the props market. Both starting pitchers have been very solid at limiting trouble and not giving up many hits. Their low WHIPs and good hard-contact against rates should keep the game low-scoring, especially early. Since I think both will have at least solid outings with the potential to dominate, I’m taking a couple of unders in my predictions, although I’m avoiding the overall run total after last night’s big last inning.
In his 14 starts, Kelly has allowed only 24 extra-base hits for an average of 1.4 per start. At home, he has given up 14 extra-base hits in seven starts. Pivetta has given up 20 extra-base hits in his 12 games, for an average of 1.7 extra-base hits. Even if we figure on a couple of extra-base hits for each starter, I still think this ends up under this total
Best Bet: Total Extra Base Hits under 6.5 (-135)
Each of the first two games of this series would have been under this total with four extra-base hits Friday and five extra-base hits on Saturday. I think the starting pitching matchup is stronger in this game than in either of those two contests, and like this prop to end up under seven once again on Sunday.
Strong Lean: Padres under 1.5 runs in the first five innings (+114)
Kelly has allowed one or zero runs in four of his last six starts overall and would have hit the under on this prop in three of his last four home starts. The Padres have been under 1.5 runs in the first five innings of each of the first two games in this series and six of their last eight games. Getting it at plus odds feels like a great way to get a quick-hitter win and get out before any late-inning drama.
