This is the opener of a four-game series in Miami between the Marlins and visiting Philadelphia Phillies.
Mick Abel is scheduled to pitch for Philadelphia while Sandy Alcantara should get the nod for Miami.
Phillies at Marlins prediction, preview
Mick Abel has started three games this season, the first three of his career. And he’s been excellent, posting a 2.35 ERA while walking only three batters in 15.1 innings. The strikeout rate is a respectable 23% and the average fastball velocity is 95.9 mph. Looking under the hood, though, there are tons of warning signs. The BABIP is only .268 while the strand rate is 100%. The FIP is much higher than the ERA at 4.38. It’s the Statcast numbers that give the most pause, though, as the average exit velocity is 93 mph, barrel rate is 11.4% and hard hit rate is a whopping 54.5%!
As for splits, the only discernible thing so far is that all three home runs have been allowed at home. Small sample size, though.
In the three starts, Abel pitched six innings in the first one, then 5.1 and 4.0 in the most recent outing. He did not allow an earned run in the first one, gave up one in the second and allowed three in the latest. The trend is not very friendly. Abel has not faced Miami yet this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Marlins have struck out at the 14th-highest rate while having the 24th-best ISO. The wOBA is 23rd-best in MLB.
Sandy Alcantara still throws hard, as the fastball is averaging 97.6 mph, but he is no longer missing bats. The swinging strike rate is a career-low 9.3%, the first time under 10% while the chase rate is only 26.3%. The biggest bugaboo is the 31 walks in 63 innings. Now, Alcantara has been unlucky. The strand rate is only 53.1% while the FIP of 4.71 is much lower than the 7.14 ERA.
Alcantara has had issues with lefties, as the walk rate is 17.5% while allowing a HR/9 of 1.55 compared to 4.8% and 0.79 against righties. The FIP is 6.35 against lefties. Alcantara has been a little worse on the road, especially in the home run and walk departments.
He allowed at least two earned runs in the first 11 starts, with five of those at five earned runs or more. In the last two starts, he’s gone six innings in both and allowed two and zero earned runs. That said, those starts were against the Pirates and Rockies at home. Alcantara faced the Phillies in his fourth start of the season. He lasted only two innings and allowed six earned runs.
The Phillies have struck out at the 25th-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being 20th in ISO. The wOBA is 11th-best.
As for bullpens, Philadelphia has the 20th-lowest FIP while Miami has the 24th-lowest.
Phillies at Marlins, Best Bet
I have no confidence in either pitcher. To infinity and beyond!
