Tonight, “The Nigerian Nightmare” returns to face No. 7 Joaquin Buckley at UFC Atlanta. This is Usman’s first fight in 20 months and first at 170 pounds since August 2023. Buckley is the new hot fighter, winning six straight fights, but now he has to get past his most formidable opponent to cement himself as a legit title challenger.
Here is my pick for the Main Event of Saturday’s UFC Fight Night in Atlanta.
Kamaru Usman Moneyline (+185)
Starting off, Joaquin Buckley is a talented fighter, but he isn’t on the same level as Usman. I know Usman has been out of action since October 2023, but getting the former dominant champion at +185 on DraftKings Sportsbook is too good a value to pass up.
Buckley is coming off victories against Stephen Thompson and Colby Covington. Usman is better than both while being a way more complete fighter. This is Usman’s first time competing on a Fight Night event since May 2018. During his two-and-a-half-year run as welterweight king, Usman displayed his well-rounded skillset, hurting opponents on the feet and ground.
Usman’s previous loss was against Khamzat Chimaev, who is challenging Dricus Du Plessis for the Middleweight Championship on August 19. His last loss at 170 pounds was against former champion Leon Edwards. Both of those defeats were by majority decision. Context matters in MMA, as Usman wasn’t dominated by any means in his last two fights.
Even the version of Usman we saw against Chimaev and in the second fight against Edwards is an all-around better mixed martial artist. Usman is better on the ground, as he averages nearly three takedowns per 15 minutes. Also, on the feet, Usman is much more accurate than Buckey, landing at a 15 percent better rate.
Can Usman become a champion again? That question is still to be determined. However, although Buckley is on a great run, the championship level is different. This week, Usman looked in phenomenal shape, as he had during his career. Until he shows he can’t compete at a high level, I will still back the former champion.
