Ancient rivals are set to battle once again tonight at historic Fenway Park. Friday’s Yankees-Red Sox matchup had a little bit of everything. A magnificent Garrett Crochet start, a dramatic Aaron Judge homer, and a tenth-inning walkoff from Boston catcher Carlos Narvaez. Now, these two foes are on tap for the second game of this weekend series. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Saturday’s showdown between the Yankees and Red Sox.
The Yankees enter tonight as favorites (-181) over the Red Sox, with the over/under set at 8.5 runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook going into Saturday’s contest.
Yankees at Red Sox prediction, preview
As disappointing as last night’s loss was, it’s not as if the Yankees didn’t put up a fight. Countering an ace such as Crochet with career journeyman Ryan Yarborough was always going to be an uphill battle. New York will have the advantage on the mound tonight with pitcher Carlos Rodon. The lefty has enjoyed his best season yet with the Pinstripes, living up to his six-year, $162-million deal signed in 2022. Over 84.2 innings of work, he’s notched a 2.87 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 103 strikeouts. Last weekend against the Red Sox, Rodon did cough up five earned runs. However, the southpaw has a solid 3.72 ERA over five career starts at Fenway Park.
New York enters this contest with the American League’s highest-scoring offense. Still, Red Sox starter Hunter Dobbins was able to hold his own against the Yankees on Sunday. Over five frames in the Bronx, he held the Pinstripes to three runs. It’s been a decent season for the right-hander, making his ninth start of the season tonight. Through 49.1 innings pitched, he owns a 4.20 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 37 strikeouts. Dobbins’ 3.89 FIP suggests he’s actually under-performed, partially a result of Boston’s subpar defense. The biggest key for the 25-year-old will be keeping Judge in check; last weekend, the slugger crushed a homer against Dobbins.
While Rodon has had success at Fenway, this isn’t an ideal matchup. The Red Sox have scored the fifth-most runs per game in baseball (4.89). In addition, Boston ranks first in the league with a .271 batting average against left-handed pitchers. Regardless, the veteran has been almost unhittable since the start of May (2.32 ERA). Dobbins also enters tonight on a high note, allowing four total runs over his last two starts (3.60 ERA). The Yankees, normally an offensive powerhouse, have tallied just one combined run over their last two contests. Those performances came against All-Stars Crochet and Seth Lugo, but it’s fair to wonder if New York is entering a slump at the plate.
Yankees at Red Sox pick, best bet
Best Bet: Yankees Red Sox under 8.5 runs (-115)
Given the way Rodon has looked all year, it’s difficult to envision a second straight letdown performance. However, Dobbins has also held his own this season. A struggling Yankees lineup is another factor to consider. Right now, the under appears to be tonight’s safest bet.
