Some series this weekend, like the San Francisco Giants-Los Angeles Dodgers clash, help determine first place in the division. Others, such as the Miami Marlins’ visit to the Washington Nationals, are simply midseason battles that will have no impact on the end-of-season standings. Miami sits last in the NL East, even after winning each of the first two games of the series, and Washington is in fourth.
The series finale will start at 1:35 p.m. ET, with youngster Eury Pérez on the mound for the Marlins and MacKenzie Gore in line for the Nationals.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Marlins at Nationals prediction, preview
Washington is well-positioned to break its seven-game losing streak with Gore on the hill. He has been a positive surprise in an otherwise disappointing season for the Nationals, tossing 81.1 innings in his 14 starts and leading the National League with 114 strikeouts. He’s also fixed the command issues that had dogged him for the first three seasons of his career, posting a 5.18 strikeout-to-walk ratio, good for sixth on the senior circuit. While prone to the occasional hard hit, the southpaw makes up for it with a 92nd-percentile whiff rate. He’s just 3-5, but that’s because he’s received the 16th-least run support among 141 starting pitchers this season.
Pérez, meanwhile, has made just one start this season after missing the entire 2024 campaign while recovering from Tommy John surgery, and it didn’t go well. In a 10-3 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Dominican threw three innings, giving up four runs while walking two and striking out five. Still, there were some positive signs: his FIP figure in the game was a minuscule 1.74, his fastball averaged over 98 miles per hour, and he gave up a lot of soft contact. He ranked in the 100th percentile in fastball spin rate in his rookie season, and in his first game, his average spin rate was 10 revolutions per minute higher than it was in 2023. Pérez should record a quality start sooner rather than later.
It might come against Washington, whose offense has been truly atrocious since the start of June, posting a .571 OPS, 66 points worse than any other team. Across that span, the Nationals have scored just 30 runs in 12 games while also walking less frequently than any other team. That’s great for Pérez, whose lack of control and propensity to give up hard hits were among his biggest issues in 2023. Miami’s offense, meanwhile, has been about league-average this month, and Agustín Ramírez hit two home runs in the series opener in the best game of his overall impressive rookie campaign.
Marlins at Nationals pick, best bet
Best Bet: Miami Marlins +1 (+102)
The underlying figures from Pérez’s first start of the season were pretty good, and besides one blow-up start against the Atlanta Braves on July 1, his rookie season was extremely encouraging. I’m hitching myself fully to the Pérez bandwagon and predicting a bounce-back against an ice-cold Washington offense.
Strong Lean: MacKenzie Gore 8+ Strikeouts (+115)
I don’t want to disrespect Gore, though; while I predict his offense will go cold and lose him the game, he’s still going to inflict plenty of damage. Miami swings at the eighth-highest rate and makes contact at a below-average rate.
