The gift that keeps on giving, this Stanley Cup Final just blessed hockey fans with an incredible comeback from down 3-0 and a free period of overtime action. The Edmonton Oilers refused to die and somehow completed the come-from-behind win over the Florida Panthers to tie the series at two games apiece.
In a truly tight series, Saturday’s contest presents a must-win outing for these title hopefuls. Here’s an Oilers vs. Panthers Game 5 prediction and pick for the 8 p.m. EST matchup.
Oilers vs. Panthers Game 5 prediction, preview
When the Panthers entered last game fresh off the heels of a dominant 6-1 win in a Game 3 which got totally out of hand, they appeared to have the Oilers on the ropes. Once Florida took a 3-0 lead to start Game 4 thanks to multiple goals from Matthew Tkachuk, their grip on the series seemed even more firm. As it turns out, however, recency bias is a killer — as are Edmonton’s stars.
The Oilers came surging back in the second period with three goals in roughly a 12-minute span. They scored the go-ahead goal late in the third period, and when the dust cleared, three Edmonton skaters had two points apiece along with the lead. While Sam Reinhart tied the contest with just 20 seconds left in regulation and Sam Bennett struck the post in overtime, Leon Draisaitl took things into his own hands with the extra-period winner to keep his team’s playoff hopes alive. Notably, the German’s four game-winning goals in overtime this postseason are a Stanley Cup Playoff record.
That brings us to Game 5. We’ve seen three of four contests in this series go to overtime, so barring one blowout, each game has been decided by a single goal. These sides appear ridiculously close, so the remainder of the Stanley Cup certainly feels like a coin flip. Advanced Hockey Stats gives the Panthers a 51.1% chance to win the cup, a slim edge over the Oilers’ 48.9% probability.
We’ve clearly seen that both offenses are capable of pouring on points and there’ve been plenty of shots to go around. The Oilers have put the puck on net 160 times this series, 15 more than the Panthers’ 145. Edmonton has outshot Florida in every game but the most recent outing, so one can assume they’ll likely continue the trend on Saturday.
The difference-maker in the series has simply been the goaltending. Florida’s Sergei Bobrovsky comes off his worst game of the series but still boasts a .913 SV% and has faced the most high-danger chances of any goalie in the playoff field. Meanwhile, Edmonton’s Stuart Skinner has an abysmal .860 SV% and was understandably pulled from Game 4 in favor of Calvin Pickard, who finished the outing with a .957 mark with just one goal allowed on 23 shot attempts. If Pickard remains in goal, the Oilers have a much better chance of hoisting the Cup.
Oilers vs. Panthers Game 5 pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook’s oddsmakers imply the coin-flip nature of this series. The Panthers are very slight Moneyline favorites at -112 while the Oilers are listed at -108 themselves. That’s a razor-thin margin between these squads, and the Oilers actually hold +220 odds of covering their -1.5 puck line. As for the total, it sits at 6.5 combined goals.
At this point, betting on scoring totals looks like a much safer proposition than trying to predict game outcomes. Thankfully, the over does hold some appeal at +100 odds. That the line even sits this low still feels a tad surprising since every game of the series included at least seven combined goals, so the over has been a reliable line thus far.
The biggest concern for over bettors should be the question of who sees the starting nod between the posts for Edmonton. If Skinner comes out, the over feels like a near-lock. However, this might be an unlikely hope since he was pulled last game and clearly outperformed by Pickard. Still, the Panthers have scored plenty of goals and Pickard isn’t an elite netminder. Between that factor and the Oilers’ scoring ability (even against a talent like Bobrovsky), the over still feels safe.
Best Bet: Over 6.5 goals (+100)
Click the odds to tail!
