The Pacers beat the Thunder 116-107 in Game 3 on Wednesday to take a crucial 2-1 series lead. It’s the second time this postseason that OKC has gone down 2-1, with the first coming against the Nuggets in the second round. It would ultimately go on to win that series in seven. Teams that have gone down 2-1 in NBA Finals history have lost over 80% of the time, so it’s clear the Thunder have a tall task in front of them.
Tyrese Haliburton was the catalyst for the Pacers’ Game 3 win, posting 22 points, 11 assists and nine rebounds on 9-of-17 shooting. The Pacers will need their superstar point guard to repeat this performance if they want to go up 3-1. Below I highlight my favorite Haliburton prop bet for Game 4.
Tyrese Haliburton under 8.5 assists (-110)
This comes down to whether or not you think the Thunder will win Game 4. Haliburton has gone over 8.5 assists in 10 of the Pacers 14 wins this postseason. He’s gone under this number in four of their five losses. As it stands, OKC is a five-point road favorite on Friday night, and best believe Mark Daigneault will have his team ready to go after blowing multiple leads in Game 3.
After each of the Thunder’s three losses to the Nuggets in the second round, they immediately neutralized Nikola Jokic in the subsequent game, and that’s exactly what we should expect them to do to Haliburton in Game 4. This trend is not that farfetched either, because when Haliburton is not able to create for his teammates at will, this Pacers’ offense struggles mightily.
Indiana has scored 107 points or fewer in all five of its losses so far this postseason, and as mentioned above, Haliburton was held completely in check in four of them.
This Thunder team won 68 games in the regular season and have shown incredible resiliency after losing a game in these playoffs. I like them to right the ship in Game 4 and send this back to OKC a 2-2 series, and in doing so, shut down the Pacers’ offensive engine in the process.
Give me the under here.