1993 World Series rematch, anyone?
That sentence would’ve sounded incoherent five weeks ago, but suddenly, the Blue Jays are the hottest team in baseball, having won 22 of their last 32 contests. They come into this weekend series with the Phillies 5-1 on their current road trip, fresh off sweeping the Cardinals in St. Louis. Not too shabby.
Philadelphia is headed in the opposite direction — its lost 10 of its last 13 — yet things might be back on track after a series win versus the Cubs earlier this week. The Phillies are also just 10 games above .500 with the fourth-best record in the National League. I think we all know that they’ll be just fine in the long run.
Let’s preview this interleague matchup with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Blue Jays vs. Phillies prediction, preview
Ranger Suarez did not pitch when the Phillies were in Toronto earlier this month, but he’ll get the chance to face a red-hot Blue Jays lineup on Friday. Suarez was BABIP’d to death in his first outing of the season back on May 4, giving up seven hits and seven earned runs in 3.2 innings to the Diamondbacks. Since then, the left-hander sports a 1.36 ERA and a 2.87 FIP in his 39.2 innings of work, a span where he’s allowed one earned run or fewer in four of his six starts. Suarez won’t ever wow you with velocity or elite strikeout rates, yet the man owns a 3.23 ERA going all the way back to the beginning of 2021. For some context, that ratio ranks slightly behind Gerrit Cole (3.15) in that same span and slightly ahead of Kevin Gausman (3.34) — more on him in a moment.
As I said, this will be a tough matchup for Suarez. Since May 1, Toronto is in possession of the league’s highest team batting average (.271) and its lowest strikeout rate (16.8%). Still, don’t confuse the Blue Jays for a roster full of slap-hitters. In that same stretch, Toronto is one of seven clubs to hit at least 50 home runs, which is why the Jays’ 121 wRC+ leads the American League. For 2025 as a whole, Toronto also owns a 121 wRC+ against LHPs — the second-best mark in MLB. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the main catalyst within the split, posting a jaw-dropping .485 expected wOBA in his 62 plate appearances versus southpaws. I’d keep an eye on Ernie Clement, too. The utility infielder has turned into one of baseball’s top platoon bats so far this season, slashing .400/.448/.750 against lefties.
Let’s get back to Gausman. Even after 13 starts, I’m not quite sure how to assess the veteran RHP. Gausman’s fastball velocity is back up to where it was in 2023 following a dip in 2024, as is his swinging strike rate, which sits at a notable 12.2% coming into tonight’s tilt. However, Gausman is still striking out less than a batter per inning and his 32nd percentile opponent barrel rate (9.5%) suddenly becomes a much bigger red flag when fewer at-bats are ending in a swing and miss. At the end of the day, the 34-year-old has pitched to a 3.53 SIERA and a 3.40 FIP. He’s managed three quality starts in his last four outings. Yet, I do feel like Gausman’s days of garnering Cy Young votes are over. He’s an ace by reputation alone.
Blue Jays vs. Phillies pick, best bet
Best Bet: Ranger Suarez Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110)
Suarez has exceeded this prop in six of his seven starts, but the Blue Jays have a league-low 14.4% strikeout rate so far in June.
Strong Lean: Blue Jays Over 3.5 Runs (-135)
Toronto owns a 121 wRC+ versus LHPs in 2025 and its scored at least four runs in six of its past seven games.
