The Rays are no stranger to a New York road trip. However, the team won’t be facing the Yankees on Friday. Instead, tonight’s matchup will take place in Queens against a World Series-caliber Mets squad. Tampa Bay has postseason aspirations of its own, having won 15 of its last 20 games. Which of these contenders will come out on top tonight? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for this inter-league battle between the Rays and Mets.
The Mets enter tonight as favorites (-180) over the Rays, with the over/under set at eight runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook going into Friday’s contest.
Rays at Mets prediction, preview
As previously mentioned, the Rays have been on an absolute heater over the past few weeks. However, a series loss to the Red Sox this week has dropped this squad to third place in the American League East. Tonight, Tampa Bay will attempt to get back on track with third-year starter Taj Bradley. The right-hander has always been high on talent, but the results have been somewhat erratic. This season, he’s posted a 4.58 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 66 strikeouts over 74.2 innings of work. Bradley’s inconsistency has been on full display this month. Following seven scoreless innings against the Astros on June 1st, the 24-year-old coughed up seven runs against the awful Marlins six days later.
For the home team, it’ll be Clay Holmes taking the mound. It’s been a terrific campaign for the former reliever, making his 14th start of the year. So far, he’s accounted for a 2.95 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 65 strikeouts, emerging as a crucial piece in this Mets rotation. Unlike 2024, Holmes has been remarkably consistent. The right-hander has allowed more than three runs only twice this season. Most recently, he held the Rockies to one run over six innings at hitter-friendly Coors Field. The former Yankees hurler has plenty of experience in this matchup, as well. Through 19 career appearances against the Rays, Holmes owns a 0.93 ERA. Starting vs. finishing a game is a very different job description, but that number bodes well for New York.
At the end of the day, Bradley is the biggest wildcard tonight. If the youngster pitches to his potential, even an elite Mets offense could struggle. However, if he struggles to find the plate, this could be a long evening for the Rays. New York is only 17th in batting average vs. right-handed pitching (.249), but the team’s OPS ranks fifth (.769). In addition, Mets hitters are fourth in baseball with 3.67 walks per game. That’s bad news for Bradley, who has the league’s 15th-highest BB/9 ratio (3.50).
Rays at Mets pick, best bet
Best Bet: Mets -1.5 (+123)
It’s not out of the question that Bradley can put together a quality start on Friday. However, it’s likelier that the Mets remain patient at the plate en route to a big inning or two. New York’s 79.4% winning percentage at home is the best in baseball. Expect that trend to continue tonight against an overmatched Tampa Bay squad.
