While Game 3 wasn’t technically a must-win game for the Indiana Pacers, going down 2-1 at home wouldn’t have been exactly ideal, and the Pacers got the job done. Now it’s the Oklahoma City Thunder’s turn; while they would still stand a chance to come back from a 3-1 deficit, tying the series back up at two games apiece would put them back in the driver’s seat for their first championship on the prairie.
For Game 4, the tone will be set early, and both teams will need to come out of the gates firing. So far, the Thunder have dominated the first quarter, winning the frame by a combined 87-64 margin, but they haven’t been able to hold on, as Indiana has more than erased that margin in the fourth quarter.
Oklahoma City is a six-point favorite (-238 Moneyline), with the point total set to 227.5. The Thunder, for now, are still -220 to win the series, but that would obviously change if the Pacers take a 3-1 lead. Below, I’ve outlined my favorite first points scorer prop bet for tonight’s game.
Best First Points Scorer for Thunder at Pacers Game 4
Pascal Siakam First Points Scorer (+750)
Oklahoma City is likely going to get the ball first, even if it’s just nine-for-19 on tips so far these playoffs. Chet Holmgren is seven-foot-one with a seven-foot-six wingspan, two inches taller and two inches longer than Myles Turner. The Thunder have started with possession in each of the first three games and have scored first all three times, so it’s no surprise that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+450), Holmgren (+475), and Jalen Williams (+550) all have shorter odds to score the game’s first points than Siakam does. However, Oklahoma City has only scored once on its first possession this series and seven times in 19 tries in the playoffs as a whole, so having the first opportunity to score doesn’t necessarily mean that it will. Those percentages make all three stars bad value.
If anything, Turner is due to win a tip, given that Holmgren hasn’t won more than three tips in a row yet these playoffs and that Turner had won six of his 10 tips through the first two rounds before running into prolific tipper Karl-Anthony Towns in the conference finals. Indiana also has a better record of scoring on its first possession than the Thunder do, having made its first shot attempt in 10 of its 19 games and recording a put-back off an offensive rebound in another one, and Pacers players accounted for the game’s first basket in seven of their first 10 games and eight of 19 overall.
On their roster, there are several compelling options, but Siakam is still the best bet. While the Cameroonian hasn’t yet scored the game’s first points these playoffs, he has attempted Indiana’s first shot thrice. He also leads all Pacers starters in first-quarter usage, ranking eighth among the 51 players who appeared in at least 10 first quarters throughout the postseason, ahead of any Oklahoma City player besides Gilgeous-Alexander. He’s the only Indiana starter to have not scored the game’s first basket so far — Turner (+750), Andrew Nembhard (+1000), Tyrese Haliburton (+1100), and Aaron Nesmith (+1300) have done so twice each — but in the long run, expect the leading scorer to find the net first.
