It’s almost the weekend, so you’ll have to excuse my half-hearted attempt at a pithy intro for the article. Uhhhh… Baseball Bets! Hooray!
There’s 14 games on tonight’s slate. Here are a couple of my top betting picks on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles
Jack Kochanowicz Over 6.5 Hits Allowed (+110)
There are so many ways to attack the struggling Kochanowicz on this slate, but this plus-money prop is my favorite. The right-hander has been awful in general for the Angels in 2025, coming into tonight’s action in possession of a 5.61 ERA and a 5.47 FIP. However, Kochanowicz’s archetype and lopsided handedness splits make him a perfect matchup for the Orioles.
You see, it’s not just that Kochanowicz gets hits hard, which he does, as evidenced by a fifth percentile opponent hard hit rate (49.8%). It’s how often he gets hit hard considering he combines that hard hit rate with a 10th percentile strikeout rate (15.9%). That’s how you get a pitcher that’s conceded 107 “hard hit” batted ball events this season — the 12th-most in MLB.
Kochanowicz also has his problems with LHBs. In fact, left-handed opponents are hitting .316 off the RHP with a .399 wOBA. That’s a major issue against any team, yet it’s especially damning versus Baltimore. The Orioles will likely have Jackson Holliday, Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Ryan O’Hearn, Cedric Mullins and Colton Cowser in their lineup on Friday. That’s a lot of lefties. Enough where I believe Kochanowicz will hit the over on this prop for the seventh time in a 12-start span.
New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
Red Sox -1.5 (+140)
It’s sort of unnerving that the Red Sox are only 8-6 in Garrett Crochet starts in 2025, though I will say that they’ve covered on the run line in seven of those eight victories. In general, Boston has been underwhelming and a disappointment so far this season, yet it did take two of three in New York last weekend and the vibes are certainly better now that Roman Anthony is up with the big club. The Red Sox are 19-17 at home and I expect they’ll be ending the evening with victory No. 20.
This is just such a lopsided pitching matchup. Crochet wasn’t amazing in his first outing against the Yankees as Boston’s ace, but he was certainly a little unlucky last Saturday, mustering only a 35.7% strand rate despite nine strikeouts in six innings of work. I’m anticipating a stronger effort on Friday from a man that enters this tilt with a 2.35 ERA and a 2.68 FIP.
Conversely, I’m expecting more of what we saw on Saturday from Ryan Yarbrough. The soft-tossing LHP has been an odd success story so far in 2025, yet he was hammered by the Red Sox six days ago, surrendering nine hits and eight earned runs in four innings. Boston clearly has the book on Yarbrough, who for all his great outings this season, has still conceded 1.59 opponent home runs per nine. The Red Sox rank second in baseball in wOBA versus LHPs (.349). I don’t think tonight goes much better for Yarbrough.
