Tomorrow, objects will fly above the DMV area as part of a military parade scheduled for the 250th anniversary of the US Army’s creation. Tonight, a different, much less politically divisive object will fly: a baseball.
Given the sad states of both the Los Angeles Angels’ and Baltimore Orioles’ pitching staffs, I expect plenty of baseballs to fly during tonight’s game. First pitch will be at 7:05 p.m. ET at Camden Yards. Jack Kochanowicz will toe the rubber for Los Angeles, while Charlie Morton will get the call for the Orioles.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Angels at Orioles prediction, preview
To be completely honest, I’m not sure how Morton still has an MLB contract. That’s not to take anything away from the 41-year-old’s career — he was a contributor to two World Series titles — but this season, he’s been simply atrocious, recording -1.0 WAR, the ninth-worst of any qualified pitcher. In his 56.0 innings, Morton has pitched to a 6.59 ERA, and he was only recently re-inserted into Baltimore’s rotation after briefly being demoted to the bullpen. He’s ranked in just the first percentile in pitching run value, according to Baseball Savant, and he has only been above-average at inducing whiffs.
It’s not like Kochanowicz has been that much better, though. The 24-year-old has been better than replacement level and held a spot in the rotation, at least, but a 5.61 ERA in 13 starts isn’t exactly ideal, and it’s not like that figure can be disproportionally credit to one or two bad performances, either; he’s been consistently bad, giving up exactly four earned runs in each of his last four starts. His pitching has been in the fourth percentile by run value, a figure mostly buoyed by his elite ability to induce ground balls and his faster-than-average fastball, but he’s even more prone to giving up hard hits than Morton is and far worse at producing whiffs and strikeouts.
To make matters worse, the Angels’ bullpen has the league’s third-highest ERA this season, with the Orioles’ right behind in fifth. There’s a reason why the game’s over-under is set to 10.5 runs, easily the highest of any game on tonight’s slate. Both teams’ offenses have been in decent form, as Baltimore has the league’s 10th-highest OPS in June and Los Angeles is 18th. The Orioles’ most dangerous hitter, Adley Rutschman, has slashed .343/.400/.571 so far this month as the team has gone 5-4, and future Hall of Famer Mike Trout has slashed .333/.408/.429 in the 12 games since he returned from an injury, helping the Angels to eight wins. Secondary stars Zach Neto (Los Angeles) and Gunnar Henderson (Baltimore) have had excellent months, too.
Angels at Orioles pick, best bet
Best Bet: Los Angeles Angels Moneyline (+156)
I trust the Angels’ recent form a little bit more than I trust the Orioles’, given that Baltimore is coming off of two straight series losses, one to a mediocre team in the Athletics and one to the American League’s best squad, the Detroit Tigers. Los Angeles, meanwhile, beat the Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners before sweeping the Athletics. Kochanowicz has enough of an edge over Morton to nullify the home field advantage.
Strong Lean: Gunnar Henderson or Adley Rutschmann – Either Player 1+ Home Runs (+180)
Kochanowicz, a righty who’s given up a .929 OPS in 178 plate appearances against left-handed hitters this season, is a great matchup for the Orioles. Rutschmann, while a switch-hitter, has hit six of his seven homers as a lefty, and Henderson, too, bats left-handed. They’ve combined for three long balls so far in June, and Kochanowicz has conceded at least one homer in three of his last four games.
