There are eight MLB games on the main slate for Saturday, with the first starting at 4:05 p.m. EST. Here are three value picks for the slate. This article is written before the actual lineups come out, so keep track of updates throughout the day.
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OF Dylan Carlson, Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels, $2,500
Carlson was called up earlier in the season primarily due to the Tyler O’Neill injury and did not do much, going hitless in his first 21 plate appearances. He’s certainly picked up since then, slashing .327/.373/.600 in 59 plate appearances. The walk rate has been 6.8%, strikeout rate 22% and ISO .273. The BABIP is an elevated .368, so he’s been fortunate, but four home runs, 10 RBI and one stolen base is pretty, pretty good.
O’Neill is still out while the Orioles face a lefty on Saturday, so Cedric Mullins will likely take a seat. It’s likely that Carlson gets the nod.
In his career against left-handed pitching, Carlson is slashing .285/.360/.432 in 512 plate appearances, with a wRC+ of 122. In 18 plate appearances this season, the wRC+ is 129 while the slash is .294/.333/.471 with a .176 ISO.
On Thursday, Carlson went 3-for-3 with a home run, good for 20 FPTS. Three games prior, he went 1-of-2 with a home run and two walks, good for 20 FPTS.
Tyler Anderson has been fairly tough against righties this season while limiting them to a .287 wOBA, but six of 11 home runs have been hit by righties.
OF Brandon Marsh, Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays, $2,700
Much was expected from Marsh heading into this season. He had 12 home runs and 10 stolen bases with a .181 ISO two seasons ago, then followed that up with 16 home runs and 19 stolen bases with a .170 ISO last season. Expectations have been far from met as Marsh has delivered only two home runs and three stolen bases with a .103 ISO in 136 plate appearances.
There were some injuries and the sample size was small. Well, since the start of June, a span of 20 plate appearances, Marsh is slashing .412/.500/.471! The BABIP has been .538, though, and the ISO was at .059.
Marsh has a career ISO of .150 and there’s a good chance he starts cooking on Saturday because of one Bowden Francis, who has allowed a whopping 19 home runs in 60.1 innings so far this season. The average exit velocity is 91.3 mph, the barrel rate is 11.9% and the hard hit rate is 50.8%, which is the second-highest mark in the MLB. Lefties are slashing .301/.370/.647 and have hit 14 of 19 home runs allowed by the pitcher.
OF Max Kepler, Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays, $3,100
We are stacking against Bowden Francis.
Kepler has a poor batting average primarily because he hits so many fly balls. The contact rate in the zone is 89.6%, average exit velocity is 90.9 mph, launch angle is 16 degrees, barrel rate is 12.4% and hard hit rate is 47.1%. Those are delicious numbers. Six of his seven home runs have come against right-handed pitching. Play the matchup accordingly.
