The stage is set for another electrifying chapter in one of baseball’s most iconic rivalries. The Red Sox welcome the Yankees to Fenway for the first game of their 2025 series, with both teams looking to assert dominance in the AL East. Boston, riding a hot streak with four wins in their last five games, is trying to close the gap on the division-leading Bronx Bombers, who are a solid 42-25 and have shown their ability to deliver under pressure. But do the Yankees know they’re entering a Fenway Park full of a spirit that hasn’t been felt around Landsdowne in, maybe, seven years? Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Friday night baseball game between the Red Sox and Yankees.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Red Sox vs. Yankees prediction, preview
The Red Sox’s offense has been on fire, especially of late. The tides have turned. Ranked fifth in MLB with 4.93 runs per game, they’ve been especially dangerous at home, averaging 5.22 runs per game and slugging .426 as a team. Rafael Devers continues to lead the charge with 14 homers and 57 RBIs, and Jarren Duran has been a key contributor, batting .279 with five doubles, a triple, and a home run in his last 10 games.
But two key young talents have also been stepping up. Marcelo Mayer, the 2024 top pick, has been exceptional with a .318 average, seven doubles, three homers, and 20 RBIs in his last 30 games. Mayer’s advanced stats are also worth noting—he’s posted a .377 wOBA and a 131 wRC+, both of which are impressive for a young player adjusting to the major leagues. Alongside him is Roman Anthony, who’s been raking in recent games with a .302 batting average and a .366 OBP in his last 20 games. Anthony has been particularly impressive against lefties, with a .372 wOBA and .488 SLG.
On the mound for Boston is Garrett Crochet, who has been a revelation—short of Max Fried, potentially the revelation—this season. With a 6-4 record and a 2.35 ERA, Crochet has delivered consistently, fanning 110 batters in 88 innings. However, his last outing against the Yankees wasn’t his best—he allowed five earned runs over six innings. But even then, Boston still managed to come away with a 10-7 win. The Red Sox bullpen has also been more reliable, ranking among the top 10 in MLB for ERA, which should provide support if Crochet faces any trouble.
The Yankees, however, aren’t exactly short on offensive firepower themselves. They lead MLB in home runs with 108 and are third in runs per game at 5.46. Aaron Judge, with a blistering .392 average, 25 homers, and 59 RBIs, has been a juggernaut. Paul Goldschmidt’s steady presence at the plate, along with Cody Bellinger and Giancarlo Stanton, make the Yankees’ offense a formidable threat to any pitcher. As we saw in their last series, New York is more than capable of turning a game into a slugfest, having scored 17 runs in their last game against Boston alone.
Yankees vs. Red Sox pick, best bet
Ryan Yarbrough will take the mound for the Yankees, and while his 4.17 ERA might seem manageable, his track record against the Red Sox is troubling. In his last outing against Boston, he was lit up for eight earned runs over four innings. The Red Sox have been slugging at an elite rate recently, and given Yarbrough’s tendency to give up hard contact, this could be a repeat of their previous matchup.
The over is an easy call here. Both teams have shown an ability to hit the long ball and put up big numbers, particularly against pitchers with tendencies to give up runs. The Yankees have gone over the total in five straight games at Fenway, and Boston has seen the total go over in five of their last seven overall. Fenway’s short porch (take that, Bronx) and the projected warm weather will only increase the likelihood of runs crossing the plate. The combination of high-powered offenses, shaky pitching matchups, and Fenway’s hitter-friendly conditions makes this an easy over play.
It’s Friday the 13th. I bet weird bounces are gonna result in runs.
Best bet: Red Sox vs. Yankees o8.5 total runs (-110)
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