My MLB Picks for Thursday, June 12th, will focus on the games starting after 6:35 p.m. ET. You’ll see some of my favorite MLB prop bets, including teams and player props. You can find all of these bets on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Follow me on Twitter for daily MLB info and bets: @SBuchanan24.
MLB Picks for Thursday, June 12, 2025
Seiya Suzuki 2+ total bases +115
Suzuki and the Cubs face Pirates starter Andrew Heaney, whose 3.24 ERA suggests regression, given his 4.70 xERA and 4.39 FIP. His strikeout rate has dropped from 8.9 K/9 last season to 6.4 K/9 over 72.1 innings this year, leading to more contact. This spells trouble against Suzuki, who excels against left-handed pitchers with a .469 wOBA and .385 ISO this season. His home splits against lefties are nearly identical, with a .463 wOBA and .367 ISO. I’m confident Suzuki will record at least two total bases against the Pirates tonight.
Framber Valdez to record a win -105
The Astros are heavy favorites against the White Sox tonight at -270, making the moneyline a steep bet. Instead, consider betting on Valdez to record the win at -105. I typically avoid this bet, as a starter can pitch brilliantly only for the bullpen to falter, costing him the win. In this case, two factors give me confidence. First, Valdez’s outs prop is set at 18.5 (-110 for both over and under), suggesting DraftKings Sportsbook expects him to pitch at least six innings. Valdez has thrown at least six innings in his last six starts, including a complete game. Second, the White Sox’s expected lineup has struggled against sinkers since last season, posting a .284 wOBA and .113 ISO. With these factors in mind, I’m comfortable backing Valdez to secure the win.
Will Warren under 15.5 outs recorded -105
Warren has been unlucky on the mound, with a high 5.34 ERA that overshadows his 3.78 xERA and 3.38 FIP. However, even in strong performances, he rarely pitches deep into games. To hit the over on his outs prop, Warren would need to record at least one out in the sixth inning, a mark he’s reached in only three of his 13 starts this season. In several games, despite pitching well, he’s struggled to exceed five innings. While the Royals aren’t an especially tough matchup, they excel against four-seam fastballs and sinkers, two pitches Warren relies on heavily.
Good luck with these MLB picks tonight!
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Follow me on Twitter for daily MLB info and bets! @SBuchanan24
