There’s only five game on tonight’s MLB slate, but I still think these three players have a very good chance at hitting a home run on Thursday. Let’s break down their odds on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Top Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Christian Walker 1+ Home Run (+300)
It’s been a rough start to the season for Walker, but there have recently been signs of life. Specifically, Walker is sporting a .206 ISO and a 125 wRC+ so far in June, numbers that were greatly assisted by a three-hit performance in Wednesday’s blowout victory. One of those three hits was Walker’s ninth home run of 2025. All nine have been hit off RHPs and two thirds of them have been produced in Houston, where Walker owns an .810 OPS. Seems like a scary combination if you’re Davis Martin — and he knows scary combinations. Just ask Martin about his seventh percentile strikeout rate (15.6%) and his 13th percentile opponent hard hit rate (47.1%). Chicago’s right-hander has given up multiple long balls in each of his past two starts. I could see that streak reaching three on Thursday.
Kerry Carpenter 1+ Home Run (+210)
Carpenter hasn’t been quite as destructive a force in 2025 as he was in 2024, yet the outfielder still possesses a .233 ISO and a 132 wRC+ in his 200 plate appearances against RHPs. He’s also hit 11 of his 13 home runs in that sample, though Carpenter actually hasn’t left the park since an eye-popping three-homer performance versus the White Sox back on June 2. It’s time for that streak to end. Carpenter will have the platoon advantage in a matchup with Dean Kremer on Thursday. Kremer has long struggled to contain opposing LHBs, and that’s been no different this season, with lefties combining to slash .331/.357/.550 off Baltimore’s starter. Kremer is also surrendered 1.69 opponent home runs per nine within the split.
Seiya Suzuki 1+ Home Run (+475)
The wind is expected to be blowing in tonight at Wrigley, which is likely why we’re getting such long odds for Suzuki to go deep. I still like the 30-year-old’s chances. According to expected wOBA, Suzuki has been one of the league’s most dangerous hitters against LHPs in 2025, as his .472 figure within the split is the fifth-highest qualified mark in MLB. In fact, that number only trails the likes of Aaron Judge, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Will Smith. That’s some great company. From a more surface perspective, Suzuki owns a .385 ISO in his 77 plate appearances against southpaws, as he’s knocked out seven home runs off lefties this season. Andrew Heaney’s been a nice story for the Pirates, yet he’s not missing bats like his younger days and he’s conceded a long ball in each of his past three starts. Look for Suzuki to take advantage.
