In Game 1, the Pacers shot 47.6% from the field and held the Thunder to 39.8%, but Indiana turned the ball over 25 times, compared to only seven for the Oklahoma City. The Pacers still eeked out the 111-110 win.
In Game 2, both teams shot well and most of the stats were even. The big discrepancy was that Oklahoma City made 10 more free throws, as the Thunder tied up the series with the 123-107 win.
In Game 3, both teams shot well but the Pacers blistered the nets to the tune of 51.8% from the field. In addition, Indiana turned over Oklahoma City 19 times, finishing plus-five in that area. The bench, particularly Bennedict Mathurin and T.J. McConnell, were huge on both offense and defense.
Game 4 is massive. There have been 38 instances in NBA Finals history in which a team has built a 3-1 series lead. 37 of those teams have gone on to win the championship. Only the 2016 LeBron James-led Cavaliers were able to accomplish the comeback feat.
Since the NBA went to a 2-2-1-1-1 playoff format in 2014, there have been eight instances in which a team went up 2-1. Four of those teams were able to hoist the trophy while four were able to come back. The 2014 Spurs won in five, the 2019 Raptors won in six, the 2020 Lakers won in six and the 2023 Nuggets won in five. The 2015 Cavaliers lost in six, the 2016 Warriors lost in seven, the 2021 Suns lost in six and the 2022 Celtics lost in six.
DraftKings Sportsbook has OKC as 6-point favorites over IND on the road with the total at 225.5.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $700K Finals Shootaround [$200K to 1st] (OKC at IND)
Captain’s Picks
Pascal Siakam ($14,700 CP): Siakam was fantastic in Game 3, stuffing the stat sheet and being a significant factor at both ends of the court. In Game 2, the Pacers missed him or did not feed him the ball when he had a mismatch. There was a conscious effort in Game 3 to eradicate that. He is such an important offensive player for the Pacers because he doesn’t need a ball screen and can break down the Thunder defense on his own, especially when he receives the ball at the middle of the free throw line, aka the nail. I think he gets close to 50 FPTS and his price allows me to fit both Haliburton and SGA.
UTIL Plays
Ben Sheppard ($2,000): Sheppard has played nine, 14 and 18 minutes in this series. He’s primarily out there to spread the floor and make it rain from downtown, but his defense was really good in Game 2. There have been four times during this playoff run that Sheppard has received at least 20 minutes of run. I think it becomes five after Game 4. The ceiling isn’t high. Well, the floor isn’t either, but the price is cheap and just hoping for double-digit FPTS.
T.J. McConnell ($4,200): It’s always tough clicking on McConnell’s name because he’s not going to play 20 minutes. That said, he is so effective when he’s on the court. In this series, he’s put up 17.25, 28.25 and 27.75 FPTS. He’s not going to replicate the five steals from Game 3, but McConnell has produced at least one in every game so far. He’s also scored nine, 11 and 10 points while dishing out four, six and five assists. I much prefer McConnell over Mathurin, who went bonkers last game, but is so reliant on scoring and will likely be highly-rostered for Game 4.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($13,800): SGA had a “tepid” Game 3, “only” scoring 24 points. Yet, he still finished with 43.5 FPTS due to also producing eight rebounds, four assists and three blocks. The Pacers have done an excellent job of making him work on offense, making the Thunder extend their screens closer to the halfcourt line. The floor/ceiling combo is just too high to ignore.
Fades
Bennedict Mathurin ($4,000): Bennedict Mathurin said it was Bennedict Mathurin time in Game 3, and boy did he deliver, finishing with 27 points on 9-of-12 shooting, 2-of-3 from downtown and 7-of-8 from the line. He just doesn’t contribute much in any other category and is so reliant on scoring. The Thunder will make adjustments and key on him more for sure. The recency bias and expected ownership bump has me going away from him in Game 4.
THE OUTCOME
I’m very curious as to what adjustments the Thunder make for Game 4. The issue, though, is that the Pacers have been one of the best teams all playoffs at adjusting at both ends of the court. Indiana has seen the Thunder three times and are calibrated to the length, speed and intensity. The Pacers defense has been very good and has caused the Thunder problems. Oklahoma City, though, doesn’t have as many avenues of adjusting, though, compared to the Pacers. Indiana can post up Siakam on the block or at the nail. The Thunder are predicated on SGA and Jalen Williams ISO’ing or turning the corner off a pick. Prior to writing this article, I was leaning towards the Thunder tying up the series, but I think the Pacers take care of business in front of what should be a raucous home crowd.
Final Score: Pacers 114, Thunder 107
