Baltimore may have had a flash of life in their 10-1 win over Detroit last night, huh? The Detroit Tigers (44-25) and the Baltimore Orioles (27-39) are set for an exciting rubber match at Oriole Park tonight. The Orioles are riding high, looking to build momentum against one of the top teams in baseball. But while the win was a statement, Baltimore has had more downs than ups this season. With a 5.08 team ERA and struggling offense, they’re set to face a daunting challenge against the Tigers, who are near the top of the standings with a balanced attack and elite pitching. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Thursday night baseball game between the Orioles and the Tigers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Orioles vs. Tigers prediction, preview
Skubal (6-2, 2.16 ERA) is having a career year. His strikeout rate has surged to a career-high 33.4% (tops in MLB), and his WHIP sits at a minuscule 0.82. His command? Unbelievable. Skubal has walked just 1% of batters in his first trip through the lineup this season—no one in the league does it better. He’s been electric against right-handed batters, limiting them to a .211 average and a .314 slugging percentage.
Meanwhile, the Orioles’ offense has struggled to get going. With a team batting average of .237 and a .303 OBP, they rank in the bottom third of the league. Against left-handed pitching, they’ve been downright anemic—ranked last in both OPS and wOBA. The last time Kremer faced Detroit, he surrendered 10 earned runs in just 10.2 innings over two starts, and this year, he’s been inconsistent at best, allowing opponents to hit .283 against him. His 4.98 ERA isn’t telling the full story; his xERA of 5.21 and a 1.44 WHIP are even worse indicators of the struggles he’s facing.
Torkelson’s bat has been key for Detroit, cranking 16 home runs and driving in 47 RBIs, hitting a solid .237 with a .339 OBP. He’s in a groove, hitting .350 over his last five games with two bombs and five RBIs. Riley Greene, too, is making noise, batting .279 with 13 homers and 44 RBIs. With a pitching staff as strong as the Tigers’, their offense just needs to capitalize when the opportunities arise.
Let’s not forget the bullpen. Detroit’s staff has allowed just 3.53 runs per game, fourth in the league. Kremer’s shaky form and the Orioles’ bullpen ranking 27th in WHIP make it hard to trust them to keep pace, especially with a 5.08 team ERA. Meanwhile, Skubal’s consistency should give the Tigers a cushion, as he’s not only dominant but efficient. He’s gone 7+ innings in three consecutive starts and won’t leave the bullpen scrambling unless it’s absolutely necessary.
Tigers vs. Orioles pick, best bet
Some might point to the Orioles’ surprise win over Detroit yesterday, but let’s be real. That’s not a trend—Baltimore has won just 46% of their games as underdogs this season, and their struggles against elite pitching have been evident all year. The Tigers have been excellent as favorites, with a 70.7% win rate when favored this season. More importantly, they’ve dominated Baltimore in recent matchups, winning three of their last five games against them.
The smart money is on Detroit tonight. With Skubal mowing down hitters and the Tigers’ offense handling Kremer’s inconsistency (and Akin’s question mark), the Orioles don’t stand much of a chance.
PITCHING UPDATE (12:20pm E.T.): The Orioles just announced that it’ll be Keegan Akin making the start tonight. It’ll be his first since 2023. His 2.89 ERA and 1.29 WHIP come from relief appearances this season. Limited sample size offers little indication of his effectiveness in the starter role against a lineup the caliber of the 2025 Tigers’. Akin has historically struggled as a starter, with a 6.85 ERA in 2023 and 4.73 ERA in 2019. His advanced metrics, such as a 1.27 WHIP, suggest inconsistency. Akin’s high strikeout rate (11.97 K/9) could lead to elevated pitch counts, risking early exits, opening the door for Kremer.
With Akin’s untested role as a starter, facing a deep Tigers offense spells trouble. While his numbers are decent, his track record suggests vulnerability. Even with Akin’s potential, the Tigers’ offense likely exploits these weaknesses. The Tigers’ balanced attack remains the safe bet here, given Akin’s lack of sustained success as a starter.
Best bet: Tigers -1.5 (-115) at Orioles
Skubal is 1999 Pedro Martinez—Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
