For as much as we like to prognosticate and project here at DK Network, the odds are always telling a story, and we’ll be exploring that narrative in this article.
There’s six games on tonight’s MLB slate. Let’s dive into the three players with the shortest odds on DraftKings Sportsbook to hit a home run on Wednesday evening.
Best Home Run Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook
Pete Alonso (+195)
It’s not terribly shocking to see Alonso with odds this short. In fact, only one person has hit more home runs than the Mets slugger since the beginning of 2019 (243) and we’ll be talking about him in just a minute. Still, it is a little shocking that Alonso has the absolute lowest long ball odds on the whole slate. Most of Jake Irvin’s home run issues have been with LHBs this season, as he’s conceded only 0.79 per nine to opposing RHBs. Alonso’s also had zero success off Irvin in his career, sitting 1-for-13 (.077) with no extra-base hits.
Aaron Judge (+200)
This is yet another spot where I’d simply need longer odds to be interested in investing in Judge this evening. While Judge does have a hilarious .515 expected wOBA against LHPs in 2025 — the highest mark in MLB — Kris Bubic isn’t a generic lefty. The soon-to-be All-Star has only allowed 12 earned runs in 12 starts in 2025, and Bubic’s 0.36 HR/9 is the second-lowest qualified figure in baseball. Judge has hit the more home runs than any person on the planet since 2019, and that includes Tuesday night, when the reigning AL MVP nearly hit one out of Kauffman Stadium entirely. Judge is never a poor bet. Yet some games are better opportunities than others.
Rafael Devers (+220)
Now this one makes some sense. Zack Littell has really struggled to keep the ball in the park in 2025, with only Bowden Francis having conceded more home runs than Tampa’s right-hander (17). Meanwhile, after an auspiciously slow start to the season, Devers has been one of the best hitters on Earth since late April. In fact, over his last 202 plate appearances, Devers is slashing .343/.460/.663 with a .319 ISO and a 207 wRC+. Devers is also one of three Red Sox players with a long ball off Littell at some point prior in their career.
